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Week Ahead: Brazil, Mexico And Colombia Interest Rates Decisions Due

LATAM
  • The focus in the week ahead will be on monetary policy decisions in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. While another 50bp cut in Brazil is widely expected, attention will be on any changes to the forward guidance and therefore the pace of rate cuts beyond May. Mexico will probably start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, although some analysts see rates staying on hold. In Colombia, the market is expecting BanRep to step up the pace of rate cuts to 50bp.
    • On Monday, Chile Q4 GDP is expected to rise by just 0.2% y/y, while analysts expect Brazil economic activity to rebound by 3.65% in January. By contrast, Colombia January economic activity is set to decline by 0.1% y/y, while January trade data will also cross.
    • Argentina will publish February trade data on Tuesday.
    • The highlight on Wednesday will be the BCB’s monetary policy meeting, where another 50bp Selic rate cut to 10.75% is widely expected. The market will be watching for any change to the forward guidance regarding the pace of rate cuts ahead. Argentina will also release Q4 GDP data, alongside Feb budget balance figures. The latest Banamex survey of economists will be published in Mexico.
    • Focus turns to Mexico on Thursday when Banxico is expected to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 11.0%. Consensus is split, however, with some analysts still expecting rates to stay on hold. Mexico January retail sales data will also be released.
    • On Friday, BanRep is set to step up the pace of easing, with a 50bp cut in the policy rate expected by the market. Mexico bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of March will cross, alongside January economic activity.
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