Week in Review; Avis (B1/BB-; S); €30s -80c, Equities +3%

* Px action; The existing 7.25% 30's that are priced to par call in '28 (€100.7/7.2%/OAS +414) are now priced flat to the 29's (+425). It follows the 30's aggressively selling-off (-€3.5/+100bps) on first earnings & then the new issue (despite only €250m in net supply). The $ 5yr CDS has moved close to 400bps while $29's have lagged the move (typically doesn't/basis looks wide here).

* On the Refi; paying down the 26's clears near term maturities & comes at only a small bump in interest costs (net ~+10m/yr in vs. the ~$296m last yr in corp. interest costs) . Focus likely to remain on rising vehicle interest costs (at $736m last yr - per unit was up 70% yoy at $106).

* On UoP; Uncertainty remains on the net €250m raised last week. As we cautioned post-earnings, Avis is not a name that has prioritised de-leveraging - last yr equity returns totalled $1.3b - a ~100% pay-out from FCF.

* On Used car prices; Manheim Index (seasonally adjusted) fell -0.9% through the first 15d days of Feb (-13.8% yoy) - greater than fcst falls won't help depreciation costs for Avis & will be exacerbated by mgmt targeted de-fleeting in Q1/2 to prop up pricing & utilisation.

Backdrop does seem to be souring for Avis particularly ahead of a still seasonally weak qtr.