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Wells Fargo: NFPs Could Push Faster Taper To Jan

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wells Fargo note the discrepancy between a disappointing nonfarm payrolls figure (+210k) and the household survey which indicated a rapidly tightening labour market.
  • “The unemployment rate tumbled to 4.2% even as the labor force participation rate rose and finally broke out of its post-pandemic range”.
  • However, despite the household survey strength, average hourly earnings were on the light side at 0.3% M/M and 4.8% Y/Y. “In pre-COVID times, a 0.3% monthly print would be considered fairly strong, but these are still not normal times”.
  • The FOMC will clearly discuss faster taper on 15 Dec, but weak payrolls and a “lighter read on average hourly earnings growth gives the Committee an out to perhaps punt to its January meeting”.

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