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AUSSIE SWAPS

Westpac note that "the market has positively re-calibrated its expectations around ACGB supply and given that there is a view that the RBA will extend its QE in 2021, that should definitely anchor the physical bond market in both outright and curve terms. In addition, with positive vaccine news, and the potential for further stimulus packages to support the global economy, 2021 is expected to be dominated by a bear steepening thematic. In our view the swap curve will be better positioned to reflect these global risk rewards and as such the 10yr EFP should keep widening. Of course, we live in a yield-reduced world and, with central banks taking the volatility out of funding rates, carry-related trades are likely to remain in vogue for some time. At the moment that favours the longer maturities, so we would think that any swap spread widening will be capped. Even so, we think that inverse long-end swap EFPs should be largely a 2020 phenomenon."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com