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Westpac Sees May CPI At 4% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA DATA

The local bank weighs in on its expectations for the May CPI print, although cautions against extrapolating monthly trends for a quarterly read. See below for more details:


Westpac: "In any one month, only 60% of the quarterly CPI is surveyed by the Monthly CPI Indicator, with many components surveyed in just one month each quarter, and some only once a year. This is why a simple three month average of the Monthly Indicator is not a good guide to the quarterly CPI. This month will provide some insight into how services inflation is unfolding through the June quarter.


Our preliminary forecast for the May Monthly CPI Indicator is for a flat print in the month which. Given a –0.4%mth decline in May 2023, this would see the annual pace lift from 3.6%yr to 4.0%yr. This will be the first time since September 2023 that the annual rate of inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator is running faster than that of the quarterly CPI."

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