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As yesterday's price action showed, the key driver in global macro markets at present remains Covid-19 Omicron headlines and their political ramifications. However, the timing of any further developments is largely unknown at this point so markets are also starting to look ahead to tomorrow's economic data.
- US CPI will be the highlight tomorrow with headline CPI expected to increase by 0.7%M/M to reach 6.8%Y/Y in November (from 6.2%Y/Y in October) while core CPI is expected to increase by 0.5%M/M to 4.9%Y/Y in November. With the FOMC leaning towards a faster taper in December a higher than expected print is likely to see further downside pressure on the Eurodollar and Treasury curves while helping the USD. A faster taper is expected to bring forward the date of the first Fed hikes.
- Also tomorrow we will get October activity data from the UK. A December hike is not completely ruled out at this stage but cautious comments from MPC members recently have reduced the probability greatly. A couple of weeks ago this data would have been hugely market moving, but with the UK's Covid Plan B now coming into action, even very strong data would be unlikely to be enough for the market to price in a December hike again. Hence, tomorrow's data now has a lot more potential to flatten the short sterling curve and weigh on the pound if it comes in sharply below expectations.
- On today's data calendar neither US jobless claims or US wholesale trade/inventory data is likely to be market moving.