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What to Watch: Geopolitical Headline Risk

MARKET INSIGHT

US FI markets weaker, near lows on low volume start to the week with Japan out for Vernal Equinox Day holiday, TYM2 just over 235k at the moment.

  • Equities steady, near middle of overnight range and eying weaker Boeing shares after 737 crash in Guangxi province.
  • Keeping wary eye on Russia/Ukraine headlines, knock-on risk:
    • Crude climbing (WTI +3.8 at 108.50) after "Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak alleging that 'oil prices may rise to USD300/bbl if Russian oil is shunned, but that is unlikely", TASS.
    • Spokesman for Germany's Chancellor says Germany cannot do without Russian oil, Bbg
  • Limited morning data summary, coming up at 0830ET (prior, est):
    • Treasury auctions $57B 13W, $48B 26W bills at 1130ET
    • Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.69, 0.54)
  • Fed speakers:
    • Atlanta Fed Bostic at NABE Conf, text and Q&A at 0800ET
    • Fed Chairman Powell at NABE Conf, text, moderated Q&A at 1200ET
  • Pres Biden will travel to Brussels, Belgium on Wednesday next week, expected to speak at European council summit on Thursday, followed by G7 meeting. No set times, TBA.
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