What to watch

It's all about central banks this week with policy decisions from no fewer than six G10 central banks (and a number of EM central banks in addition).

• Tuesday will see the Riksbank kick off policy announcements for the week with 12/14 of the analyst surveys we have read expecting a 75bp hike but markets pricing in around a 60% probability of a 100bp hike. The MNI Riksbank Preview will be released this morning.
• Wednesday will see the FOMC decision announced with a 75bp hike fully expected and markets pricing in around a 20% probability of a larger 100bp hike. There will be focus on the dots, with views seemingly becoming more dispersed around the next steps in the policy cycle. The MNI Fed Preview will be released later today.
• Thursday will see the BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank and Bank of England all announce policy decisions, with the latter's delayed from last week following the death of Queen Elizabeth II. We will preview all of these decisions with the BOE preview due to be released tomorrow. 21/24 BOE previews that we have read look for a 50bp hike (the remaining three expect a larger 75bp hike) while market pricing is split around 50/50 between these two outcomes.
• Friday will likely see the UK Fiscal Statement (i.e. mini budget) although the date is still unconfirmed. This is expected to announce a number of tax cuts and may give some more details of the energy support plan.
• In terms of the calendar today, we have speeches from ECB's de Guindos, de Cos and Villeroy.