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What to Watch: CPI Inflation Data for October, Fed Speakers, APEC

US TSYS
  • Main focus on this morning's CPI inflation read for October at 0830ET. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in October, a third month at 0.3 after two 0.16 readings at the start of summer.
    • The "supercore" is seen moderating but to a still painful rate for the FOMC. It’s possible some of this strength is faded due to the health insurance reset but equally Chair Powell warning on not being misled by a few good months of data could see sensitivity to a strong print here.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers (Barkin and Goolsbee more likely to offer influential commentary rather than Barr and Mester):
    • Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook (no text, Q&A) at 0830ET
    • Fed VC Barr oversight of financial regulators testimony at 1000ET
    • Cleveland Fed Mester opening remarks inflation webinar at 1100ET
    • Chicago Fed Goolsbee on policy, eco outlook (text TBA, Q&A) at 1245ET
  • US Tsy supply $75B 42D CMB bill auction at 1130ET
  • Headline watching: House vote on stopgap funding bill today to avoid US Gov shutdown Friday.
  • Markets watching Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Week 2023 with China Pres Xi in attendance. Pres Biden and Xi scheduled to meet Wed.
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