What to Watch: Feb Employment, Fed Speak, Oil Prices

FI markets trading higher, risk-off support after Russia started shelling Europe's largest nuclear reactor based in Ukraine, squelching positive tone over third round peace talks and cease fire "corridors".

• Key employment data -- timely metric for markets to gauge policy before the Fed enters blackout at midnight. A lot of time between tonight and March 16 FOMC for new geopolitical risk to upset guidance expectations.
• Headline data coming up at 0830ET:
  • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (+467k, +423k)
  • Change in Private Payrolls (+444k, +400k)
  • Change in Mfg Payrolls (+13k, +24k)
  • Unemployment Rate (4.0%, 3.9%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.7%, 0.5%), YoY (5.7%, 5.8%)
  • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%, 62.2)
• Fed Speak so far:
  • Chicago Fed Pres Evans interview on CNBC at 0845ET, but suspect there may be more pop-up appearances by Fed presidents to get final word in ahead tonight's blackout.
  • Keep eye on oil pricing: Fed Chairman Powell at Senate testimony: "WHAT MATTERS FOR INFLATION IS HOW LONG OIL PRICE RISE LASTS ... $10 RISE IN OIL IS ABOUT 2 TENTHS ON INFLATION AS A RULE OF THUMB" Bbg. This yet again brings up potential of stagflation as inflation soars but the Fed does not raise rates as economy growth slows.