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What to Watch: Key Jobs Data Ahead

US TSYS
Tsys firmer, short end outperforming w/ yield curves moving off week's deeper inverted levels (2s10s +3.952 at -68.759 vs. appr -77.50 early Wed) in lead-up to headline employment data for November (+200k vs. +261k prior).
  • Tsy futures volumes more moderate than of late (TYZ2 330k) as markets await the key measure at 0830ET (prior, est):
    • November Nonfarm Payrolls (+261k, +200k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls (+233k, +190k)
    • Unemployment Rate (3.7%, 3.7%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.4%, 0.3%); YoY (4.7%, 4.6%)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%, 62.3%)
    • Payrolls growth is seen continuing to moderate but well above a more sustainable 100k with the u/e rate holding at a low 3.7% (slight survey skew lower) and AHE easing to 0.3% M/M (slight skew higher).
  • Fed speak ahead policy blackout at midnight tonight:
    • Richmond Fed Barkin on labor mkt, Virginia eco-summit, text but no Q&A, at 0915ET
    • Chicago Fed Evans on fin-reg at 1015 and again at 1400ET as he makes open remarks at eco-symposium. Note, Chicago Fed annc late Thu that Austan Goolsbee will replace Evans as president on January 9.
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