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What to Watch: Latest Employment Data

US TSYS
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Tsys trading mildly higher for the most part, 2s little weaker following recent 2s10s flattener block, current levels inside narrow overnight range on moderate volumes (TYH3<280k). Yield curves continue to extend inversion/unwind late 2022 steepening, 2s10s currently -2.249 at -69.522 vs. -70.455 low.

  • With little react to Wed's Dec FOMC minutes (ongoing hikes "appropriate"), focus turns to APD private employ data (150k est vs. 127k prior) at 0815ET, headline NFP data (+200k est vs. +263k prior) Fri at 0830ET.
    • SocGen see nonfarm payrolls rising a strong 245k (cons 200k), down from earlier months but above 125k-150k per month and exceeding trend growth in labor force; unemployment rate holding at 3.7%, with turn from lows of 3.5%, if sustained, faster than they anticipated.
    • JPMorgan expect nonfarm payrolls growth of 200k in Dec (cons 200k) of which 175k comes from private industries; continued signs of strength in the labor market and strong labor demand, albeit softest month of job gains in 2022.
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Tsys trading mildly higher for the most part, 2s little weaker following recent 2s10s flattener block, current levels inside narrow overnight range on moderate volumes (TYH3<280k). Yield curves continue to extend inversion/unwind late 2022 steepening, 2s10s currently -2.249 at -69.522 vs. -70.455 low.

  • With little react to Wed's Dec FOMC minutes (ongoing hikes "appropriate"), focus turns to APD private employ data (150k est vs. 127k prior) at 0815ET, headline NFP data (+200k est vs. +263k prior) Fri at 0830ET.
    • SocGen see nonfarm payrolls rising a strong 245k (cons 200k), down from earlier months but above 125k-150k per month and exceeding trend growth in labor force; unemployment rate holding at 3.7%, with turn from lows of 3.5%, if sustained, faster than they anticipated.
    • JPMorgan expect nonfarm payrolls growth of 200k in Dec (cons 200k) of which 175k comes from private industries; continued signs of strength in the labor market and strong labor demand, albeit softest month of job gains in 2022.