CANADA DATA
- It’s easily missed ahead of time but it’s worth being aware of today’s labour force survey revisions at 0830ET (not showing in the Bloomberg calendar for instance).
- It will impact data from 1987-2024 and typically includes new seasonal factors for the past three years but it’s hard pinning down what other technicalities might change ahead of time.
- Typically, “this standard revision process results in minor changes to recent and historical LFS data and has little impact on trends in key labour market indicators, such as employment, unemployment, and labour force participation rates."
- However, we nevertheless watch for any changes in most recent trends after what currently looks to have been a strong end to 2024 with 141k net jobs created in Nov-Dec (51k and then 91k).
- However, unlike in the US where payrolls seasonal factors have been particularly favorable in recent months, these labour force employment factors were on the less favorable side for Dec in particular [see charts]. That could limit scope for downside revisions but we'll have to wait and see.
- The unemployment rate surprisingly dipped to 6.71% in Dec (cons 6.9) after the 6.84% in Nov. That said, revisions are unlikely to alter what has been a broader trend higher, having started 2024 at 5.7% and 2023 at 5.0%.
- Separately, the December advance release for manufacturing sales will also be released today at 0830ET, following yesterday’s surge in the retail sales advance likely in large response to the temporary GST/HST holiday.
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