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Winter Premium Increasing as Front Month TTF Falls


TTF front month extends the decline today to the lows of the week with temperatures easing back toward normal in mid July easing cooling demand while storage inventories remain high despite low injection rates. LNG sendout has stabilized just over 300mcm/d after falling at the start of the month.

  • Moves in future season are more muted with signs of increased LNG imports to China in June adding to supply risks for winter amid competition for global LNG supplies despite muted demand from elsewhere in Asia. Even with storage full before the winter heating season the market could still tighten with cold weather or with any drop in imports.
  • The premium of Q1 2024 over August 23 has risen this week from below 17€/MWh on 3 July up to 21.25€/MWh today. The spreads reached a high of 21.98€/MWh in mid May.
    • TTF AUG 23 down -5% at 32.66€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1.4% at 50.7€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -0.9% at 50.97€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.3% at 53.8€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.2% at 42.55€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg

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