With the Fed in blackout all.....>

US EURODLR FUTURES: With the Fed in blackout all week, the focus in ED markets

was on any further justification to expect near-term FOMC cuts. Mixed data and

geopolitical tensions ultimately left conviction on 2019 cuts a little higher.

- A quiet Monday saw the entire Eurodollar futures strip shift lower in

parallel, with drops of 5-6 ticks in all 15 contracts from Sep20-Mar24.

- Flattening was an underlying theme Tuesday, with near-dated contracts

underperforming and Blues/Golds up 3+ ticks.

- But that was to mark a near-term bottom for EDs. A weaker-than-expected core

CPI print Wednesday added modestly to the case for Fed cuts and EDs ticked up.

- Despite a quiet data slate Thursday (only initial claims and import prices,

which were modest misses), a risk-off theme courtesy of U.S.-Iran tensions kept

the ED rally going into the close.

- With next week`s FOMC looming, Friday`s data sent mixed signals: rates sold

off amid stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial prod data, but

retraced after UMich surveys showed inflation expectations cratered.

- Ultimately EDZ9 looks to have finished the week 1/1.5 ticks higher.