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Needle Still Points South


Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs


Heading North


Bull Rally Accelerates


Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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Bond yields continued to fall Thursday, but the week's pace has slowed, rates holding to a narrower range all session. Knock-on bid from EGBs continued to be a factor cited by sell-side desks, curve steepener unwinds running their course.
  • Tsys trimmed gains after lower than estimated weekly claims of 293k -- lowest since pre-pandemic, tame PPI at .5 and .2 core. Fast two-way immediately after release seeing better selling in 10s-30s from prop and real$ accts. Yield curves bouncing after week's broad flattening, finished the session mixed: 5s30s climbed back over 100.0 briefly, receded into the second half: +1.44 at 96.99.
  • Surprise $5B 2pt issuance from Morgan Stanley weighed on 5s-10s on rate-lock hedging. More banks sure to follow as they exit earnings blackout. May help push total October issuance estimate over $125B.
  • Fed Speak: "Supply chain constraints are clearly going to last longer than they hoped—well into the second half of next year in many sectors," said Jeffrey Lacker, former president of the Richmond Fed, noting that base year effects have already petered out. Six-month inflation is now running at a 7.2% annual rate, Lacker said. "As long as it's just supply chains, they can hold on a little longer. But the issues are pass-through and expectations, and on those fronts the data continues to erode."
  • After the close the 2-Yr yield is down 1bps at 0.3481%, 5-Yr is down 2.4bps at 1.0452%, 10-Yr is down 2.3bps at 1.5142%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 2.0167%.