Woolworths (WOWAU 28s; Baa2/BBB) Regulator alleges misleading pricing
The ACCC (competition regulator) haslaunchedproceedings against the duopoly grocers in Australia; Woolworths (37% market share) and Coles (28%). This is separate to a investigation into supplier relations - the overhanging risk we have flagged in the past with potential margin impact - whose results are also expected soon.
Both sides of the political spectrum have jumped on the allegations - media & political scrutiny during inflation has been a driver of the focus. WOW equities closed -3.4% - somewhat muted but fines could get ugly here at the higher of $50m/breach or 3x benefit obtained (court determined) or if former cannot be determined 30% of corporate turnover during the breach period. For reference the regulator alleges misleading pricing on 266 products between Sept '21 to May '23 for Woolworths. Annual turnover for the co is €42b.
WOW is still the sector leader on margins (among € issuers) and no issues on BS with ample rating headroom (net 2.6x). +25bp pickup over Carrefour & Tesco - we are still skewed to see value there despite the headlines BUT above will be dragged out - the 28s have traded much wider in the past/better levels may emerge. WOW response here.