Free Trial

Worst ISM Services Employment Since Jul 2020 Consistent With Recession

US DATA

There may only be a small sample size (survey started in 1997), and it's seemingly at odds with broader labor market data, but an ISM Services employment reading as weak as December's has always coincided with a recession.

  • The latest reading (43.3) was worse than at any point in the 2001 recession, and a little worse than the September 2008 report.
  • There was limited explanation evident from the report, with anecdotes including: “Remote work is preferred for most, making it difficult to recruit skilled employees, and our skilled employees are leaving for hybrid options” and “Layoffs have increased in the professional services and staffing industries over the past several months as companies try to reduce cost amid the climate of economic uncertainty and decreasing customer demand.”

Source: ISM, NBER, Bloomberg, MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.