MNI: Canada Apr-Sept Budget Deficit Widens On Spending

CANADA'S TRUDEAU: I CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD TALKS WITH TRUMP

MNI BRIEF: Little Macro Difference On Rate Oprions- de Guindos

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Added Outright Repo For Ample Lqdty In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 29

MNI BRIEF: China Extends U.S. Import Tariff Exemption List

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

CANADA Q3 GDP ANNUALIZED +1.0% AS EXPECTED ON GOVT, CONSUMERS

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Wrightson ICAP Warn On Weather Complication For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wrightson ICAP "arbitrarily lowered" their NFP forecast from 175k to 125k "in response to the spike in Texas unemployment insurance filings."
  • "As a point of reference, the cumulative number of new claims over the weeks of July 13 and July 20 was roughly 25K higher than would have been suggested by the trend prior to the storm. However, we don’t have any scientific way of translating that into a weather impact in July payrolls."
  • “We continue to look for an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% in July, but the risks in the forecast have changed. With the June rate (4.05%) having just barely rounded up, we had thought there was at least some risk that the published rate for this month might slip back to 4.0%. The probability of a temporary dip in July is now very low.”
  • “Weather disruptions often produce offsetting distortions in the hours and earnings data. Firms may report shorter workweeks for those who are unable to come into work while also reporting unchanged earnings for salaried employees. In the aggregate data, the decline in reported hours worked implies a higher level of average hourly earnings. We don’t expect the impact to be huge this month, but we have trimmed our forecast for the average workweek by a tenth of an hour to 34.2.”
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.