Yearly Inflation Expected at +6.70% in October Print

Inflation data for October will cross soon (1600GMT/1900 local time) and is expected to show an increase in the yearly figure from +6.00% in September to +6.70% in October. On a monthly basis, CPI is seen crossing at +0.87% again.

• Goldman Sachs expect inflation to continue rising to +6.7% y/y. They say inflation momentum is elevated, largely due to elevated levels of domestic demand spurred on by loose fiscal and monetary policy in H123. Given that they expect inflation momentum to increase through the end of the year, they see material upside risks to their forecast of rates being left on hold in December and note chances of a 100bp hike.
• UniCredit say that according to weekly readings on a narrow basket of goods, consumer prices grew in October by about 0.8-0.9% m/m, about the same as in September, bringing annual inflation to +6.7%. They say price pressure should ease somewhat in November-December, as the RUB appreciated in October. Consequently, UniCredit are keeping their full-year forecast unchanged, at +7%, noting that risks are skewed to the upside. They think the CBR will hike by another 100bp in December before taking a long pause.