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Yen Firms On Softer US Yields, Tokyo CPI Out Today

JPY

USD/JPY largely followed the trajectory of US yields post the Asia close on Monday. We got to lows of 143.66 as the 10yr US yield dipped sub 4.0%, before rebounding in tandem with some yield recovery. The pair tracks in the 144.20/25 region in early Tuesday trade, with yen gaining close to 0.30% for Monday's session.

  • Technically for USD/JPY, the move lower from Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.32 - is intact for now.
  • The trend outlook remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 140.25, the Dec 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 145.97, Friday’s high.
  • A softer US yield backdrop was supported by a decline in the NY Fed's inflation expectations index, while Fed voter Bostic said he expects 2 25bp cuts this year, beginning in Q3.
  • Note Japan markets return today after yesterday's holiday. The main focus will be on the Dec Tokyo CPI print, with the market looking for 2.5% y/y (prior 2.7%). The ex fresh food measure is projected at 2.1% y/y, while ex fresh food and energy is tipped at 3.5%, with both measures seen easing y/y momentum versus Nov.
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