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Yen Weakness Extends Amid Rising US Yields, JPM On Intervention

JPY
  • Pressure on core fixed income continues to weigh on the Japanese yen on Monday, underpinning the bounce for USDJPY (+0.65%). Moves are reflective of the US yield curve bear steepening, which has seen the 10-year yield rise to 4.34%, the highest level since 2007.
  • USDJPY has now firmly re-established itself above the 146 handle and continues to hug session highs ahead of the European close. Last week’s price action resulted in a break of 145.07, the Jun 30 high, which confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting current positive sentiment. The initial target on the topside will be 146.56, last week’s high and a resistance that dates back to November last year. Above here, the focus will shift to 147.49, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Reports continue to speculate over potential BOJ intervention, however, there has no been escalation of the usual rhetoric from MOF officials. Indeed, JPMorgan stated that Japan's threshold for currency market intervention on the yen is likely to be around 150 per dollar. Analysts noted that the fundamental conditions in the Japanese economy had been improving since the last time the MoF intervened to lift the yen in September and October last year.

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