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Yields, USD Move in Lockstep as Uptrend Resumes

FOREX
  • Markets traded on a steadier footing early Monday, with the worst case scenario of a US government shutdown avoided - helped stabilise equity markets on both sides of the pond. This steadier outlook didn't last through US hours, however, as an underlying USD bidtone followed US bond markets in lockstep. The US 10y yield inched higher still to show above last week's 4.6861% to once again touch levels not seen since late 2007.
  • The better-than-expected Manufacturing ISM also proved to be a positive factor for US yields, with the tip in the employment subindex back above 50.0 also factoring in a stronger jobs market ahead of this Friday's nonfarm payrolls release.
  • The greenback was the strongest performing currency in G10 Monday, with JPY and CHF also trading well. The NOK and SEK accompanied AUD lower.
  • The RBA is likely to leave rates at 4.10% again at its Tuesday meeting, as the economy is developing broadly as the bank expects. Decisions are highly data and outlook dependent and while there have been some upside surprises there haven’t been any developments that would shift the Board from its on hold stance. The tightening bias will probably be retained to keep the central bank’s options open going forward and the accompanying statement may again be little changed.
  • Speakers due on Tuesday include Fed's Mester and Bostic, as well as ECB's Simkus, Lane and Villeroy.
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