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Trend Needle Points South

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Fed Terminal Up To 5.06% in June 2023

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Heading North

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Late Dec/Mar Tsy Roll Level Update

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CNH

Spot USD/CNH holds a fairly tight range after the PBOC trimmed the RRR by 50bp on Monday. The People's Bank said the move will release about CNY1.2tn of liquidity. USD/CNH last trades at CNH6.3734, 14 pips lower on the day.

  • The Securities Times reported that the PBOC could cut their relending rate for SMEs by 25bp from Dec 7 on top of their earlier RRR cut.
  • Premier Li, who last week foretold the latest PBOC move, said yesterday that China is able to meet its major targets for the whole year. Li noted that there's room for various monetary policy tools, including further RRR reduction.
  • Separately, the China's Politburo signalled an easing in curbs on the real estate sector. Top CPC officials met ahead of a broader economic session which sets targets for the coming year.
  • China's trade surplus shrank more than expected to $71.72bn last month, as imports growth registered well above median estimate.
  • Looking ahead, China's November inflation data will hit the wires on Thursday.
  • From a technical perspective, bears look for a sell-off past Dec 1/Nov 16 lows of CNH6.3631/16 towards May 31 low of CNH6.3525. Bulls need a jump above Nov 2 high of CNH6.3999 before taking aim at Oct 29 high of CNH6.4104.

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