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The redback (both onshore and offshore) has surged to its strongest levels since 2018, benefitting from a supportive impulse generated by expectations of more supportive policies within China and improvement in global risk sentiment. Broader-picture musings rather than any discrete headline catalysts seem to be driving yuan strength.
- USD/CNH trades -105 pips at CNH6.3534 as we type. The rate is approaching May 11, 2018 low of CNH6.3198 and a break here would expose Apr 19, 2018 low of CNH6.2561. Conversely, bulls look for a rebound above Dec 3 high of CNH6.3798.
- USD/CNY changes hands -128 pips at CNY6.3535. Losses past May 14, 2018 low of CNY6.3305, followed by Apr 19 low of CNY6.2618. Bulls keep an eye on Dec 6 high of CNY6.3788.
- The PBOC set their central USD/CNY mid-point at CNY6.3677, 12 pips above sell-side estimate, but the yuan has been unfazed by this softer-than-expected fixing.
- Thursday's inflation data headline the local economic docket during the remainder of this week.