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ZAR Faces Toxic Cocktail of Higher USTs, Oil Price & Weaker PGMs, Union Strikes to Be Monitored

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.18% higher this morning, tracking early upside in the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +1.20% yesterday to move back above the 15.00 handle, having failed to break the prevailing uptrend.
  • ZAR remains vulnerable at this stage with a toxic cocktail of risk-off, higher USTs, weaker PGMs and rising oil prices denting the currency's performance.
  • On the local front, Unions embark on a nationwide strike which has analysts concerned about its indefinite nature at a time when the recovery narrative is so fragile.
  • Both sides seem far off in their demands, and the situation will need to be monitored.
  • Outside of PMI data this morning, the focus will remain on global risk conditions and the UST market, which is causing reverberations through EM rates, especially in the high-beta space.
  • USD/ZAR is currently caught in the 14.80-15.20 range – looking for a breakout on either side to determine its next steps.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.9847, Sup2: 14.9065, Res1: 15.1367, Res2: 15.2080
  • SA 5Y CDS


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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