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ZAR: Rand On Softer Footing, Inflation Expectations Decline Further

ZAR
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Spot USD/ZAR last deals at 17.9845, up 860 pips on the day, sticking to a familiar trading range. A break above the 50-EMA at 18.0563 would send a bullish signal, while bears look for losses towards Jul 28, 2023 low of 17.5713 and Jul 27, 2023 low of 17.4193.

  • SAGB yields have crept higher across the curve this morning, but they continue to operate near cyclical lows. South Africa's 1x4 FRAs trade ~26bp below the 3-month JIBAR ahead of next week's SARB monetary policy meeting.
  • The BER's Inflation Expectations Survey for Q3 supported the case for a SARB rate cut as anticipated price growth moderated across the 2024-2026 horizon, with participants now seeing inflation at +5.1% Y/Y this year.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has added 0.7%, building on yesterday's gains. The precious metals subindex operates 0.3% above neutral levels.
  • South Africa's mining data for July will cross the wires at 10:30BST/11:30SAST but is unlikely to move the needle for domestic markets, with inflation developments and the interest-rate outlook drawing most attention.
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Spot USD/ZAR last deals at 17.9845, up 860 pips on the day, sticking to a familiar trading range. A break above the 50-EMA at 18.0563 would send a bullish signal, while bears look for losses towards Jul 28, 2023 low of 17.5713 and Jul 27, 2023 low of 17.4193.

  • SAGB yields have crept higher across the curve this morning, but they continue to operate near cyclical lows. South Africa's 1x4 FRAs trade ~26bp below the 3-month JIBAR ahead of next week's SARB monetary policy meeting.
  • The BER's Inflation Expectations Survey for Q3 supported the case for a SARB rate cut as anticipated price growth moderated across the 2024-2026 horizon, with participants now seeing inflation at +5.1% Y/Y this year.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has added 0.7%, building on yesterday's gains. The precious metals subindex operates 0.3% above neutral levels.
  • South Africa's mining data for July will cross the wires at 10:30BST/11:30SAST but is unlikely to move the needle for domestic markets, with inflation developments and the interest-rate outlook drawing most attention.