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ZAR: Rand Regains Poise, Linkers Auction Eyed

ZAR

Spot USD/ZAR last operates at 17.9565, almost 600 pips below neutral levels, which turns bearish focus to Aug 19 low of 17.6746. A break here would open up 17.4193, the Jul 27 2023 low. Conversely, bulls eye the 50-EMA at 18.2193 for initial resistance.

  • SAGB yields sit marginally higher on the day ahead of an auction, which will see the National Treasury offer ZAR1bn of 2031, 2038 and 2046 bonds. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate holds steady at 5.60%, hovering above cycle lows printed in mid-August at 5.52%. Leading into the auction, investor sentiment may be influenced by below-forecast CPI data released earlier this week, with headline CPI coming in at +4.6% Y/Y.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has added 0.4%, with the precious metals subindex last seen 0.6% better off. Gold trades ~$8.6/oz. higher on the session.
  • The local economic docket is virtually empty towards the end of this week, with all eyes on the Jackson Hole symposium and the keynote address from Fed Chair Powell.
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