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57.00 Remains A Clear Resistance Point, July Trade Figures Close To Expectations

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USD/PHP has tracked lower in the first part of trade today. We were last at 56.685, around +0.20% firmer in PHP terms since the open. The BBDXY is down around 0.15% in the first part of Friday trade, which is helping Peso sentiment. Recent highs rest at 57.00, which remains a clear resistance point for the pair. On the downside, early September lows sit at 56.495, which is also close to the 20-day EMA.

  • On the data front today, we had July trade figures. The deficit widened to -$4.2bn, close to market expectations and wider than the prior -$3.9bn outcome. Export growth was weaker than expected at -1.2% y/y (3.0% forecast and 0.8% prior), while imports fell by -15.3% y/y (versus -12.0% forecast).
  • The July unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.8%, from 4.5% in June. We are only back to early 2023 levels, but the best of the labor market strength may now behind us.
  • In local news, the Philippines has signed a free trade agreement with South Korea (see this link), while Australian Prime Minister Albanese visits Manila today.
  • BSP also starts it variable-rate auctions for its overnight reverse repurchase facility today (see this link).
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USD/PHP has tracked lower in the first part of trade today. We were last at 56.685, around +0.20% firmer in PHP terms since the open. The BBDXY is down around 0.15% in the first part of Friday trade, which is helping Peso sentiment. Recent highs rest at 57.00, which remains a clear resistance point for the pair. On the downside, early September lows sit at 56.495, which is also close to the 20-day EMA.

  • On the data front today, we had July trade figures. The deficit widened to -$4.2bn, close to market expectations and wider than the prior -$3.9bn outcome. Export growth was weaker than expected at -1.2% y/y (3.0% forecast and 0.8% prior), while imports fell by -15.3% y/y (versus -12.0% forecast).
  • The July unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.8%, from 4.5% in June. We are only back to early 2023 levels, but the best of the labor market strength may now behind us.
  • In local news, the Philippines has signed a free trade agreement with South Korea (see this link), while Australian Prime Minister Albanese visits Manila today.
  • BSP also starts it variable-rate auctions for its overnight reverse repurchase facility today (see this link).