Market News

POLICY

MNI REVIEW: RBNZ Ups Bond Buys; Prepares For Negative Rates

RBNZ increases its bond-buying program and gets ready for further policy interventions in coming quarters

DATA

MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Q2 GDP Contraction Breaks Records

UK growth recovered in June, but damage in April and May sent country in sharpest Q/Q decline on record.

POLITICAL RISK

China To Raise WeChat/TikTok In Phase 1 Talks With US: BBG

Bloomberg reported earlier (citing unnamed sources) that Beijing will push to discuss the recent US measures targeting TikTok and WeChat, as part of the overall talks on the implementation of the Phase One trade deal.

Virtual talks which will include agricultural purchases and the USDCNY exchange rate are set to take place "as soon as this week" but there is no firm date, per Bloomberg's sources.

CHINA

Production Of COVID-19 Vaccine To Start In 2 Weeks

Russian state-owned news outlet TASS is citing Health Minister Mikhail Murashko that the country will begin producing the COVID-19 vaccine that was given regulatory approval on August 11 within 2 weeks.

RUSSIA

Khan On Course For Comfortable Win In Rearranged London Vote: Poll

Latest opinion poll by Redfield Wilton shows Mayor of London retaining strong support ahead of the rescheduled London mayoral election to be held in May 2021.

The election was due to be held in May 2020, but was postponed due to COVID-19.
1st Round voting intention: Khan (Labour): 49%, Bailey (Conservative) 26%, TBC (Liberal Democrat) 12%, Berry (Green) 9%.
2nd Round voting intention: Khan (Lab): 61%, Bailey (Con) 39%
Poll carried out Aug 5-7 on 2,500 eligible London voters.
Mayoral election likely to be demonstrative of the Conservatives' continued slide to minority status in the capital. Having won the mayoralty twice, in 2008 and 2012 under Boris Johnson, the Conservatives continue to lose ground in the city that voted heavily to remain in the EU in 2016.

ECONOMIC DATA CALENDAR AND EVENTS

ImpactCountryDate/timeEventData Points / descriptionforecastprevious

14/08/2020
06:45 GMT

HICP (f)

HICP (f) m/m	0.4	0.4
HICP (f) y/y	0.9	0.9

14/08/2020
02:00 GMT

Fixed-Asset Investment

fixed-asset investment y/y

-1.6

-3.1

13/08/2020
20:30 GMT

Fed Weekly Money Supply Data

Fed weekly securities holdings

13/08/2020
15:00 GMT

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic to speak at a National League of Cities Constituency Groups Virtual Summit on "Equitable Solutions for the Future of Cities." No audience Q&A. No text.

13/08/2020
14:30 GMT

Natural Gas Stocks

natural gas stocks w/w

13/08/2020
12:30 GMT

import/export price index

imports price index	0.4	1.40
exports price index	0.6	1.40

13/08/2020
12:30 GMT

Jobless Claims

jobless claims

1110

1186

13/08/2020
07:00 GMT

HICP (f)

HICP (f) m/m	-1.6	-1.6
HICP (f) y/y	-0.7	-0.7

13/08/2020
06:00 GMT

HICP (f)

HICP (f) m/m	-0.5	-0.5
HICP (f) y/y	0	0

13/08/2020
05:30 GMT

unemployment

unemployment q/q

7.8

12/08/2020
23:50 GMT

CGPI

Corp goods price index m/m		+0.6
CGPI y/y		-1.6

12/08/2020
22:00 GMT

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated discussion with the City of Houston's COVID-19 Relief and Recovery Czar and former Chairman and President of Shell Oil Company Marvin E. Odum. Conversation related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including: Houston’s response to COVID-19, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy actions during the pandemic, and reopening the economy.

12/08/2020
19:00 GMT

San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly to speak at an "Economic Club of Las Vegas: Virtual Event Series" event in a fireside chat moderated by President Ken Heck on the current status of the U.S. economy and the ongoing impacts of COVID-19. No prepared remarks expected. Livestream via YouTube Live. Group media interview immediately following the event.

12/08/2020
18:00 GMT

Treasury Budget

Treasury budget balance

-864.1

12/08/2020
15:00 GMT

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan to speak with the Lubbock Chamber of Commerce. Audience Q&A.

12/08/2020
14:30 GMT

DOE weekly crude oil stocks

crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

12/08/2020
14:10 GMT

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren to speak with the South Shore Chamber of Commerce about the U.S. economy and current financial conditions. Audience Q&A. No media Q&A. Text expected.

12/08/2020
12:30 GMT

CPI

CPI	0.3	0.6
CPI Ex Food and Energy	0.2	0.2

12/08/2020
12:00 GMT

Social Financing

social financing (date tba)

1.846

3.434

12/08/2020
12:00 GMT

New Loans

new loans (date tba)

1.200

1.811

12/08/2020
12:00 GMT

Money Supply

M2 ytd y/y (date tba)

11.1

12/08/2020
11:00 GMT

MBA weekly applications index

MBA Mortgage Applications

-5.1

12/08/2020
09:00 GMT

industrial production

industrial production m/m	10	12.4
industrial production y/y wda	-11.6	-20.9

12/08/2020
08:00 GMT

HICP (f)

HICP (f) m/m
HICP (f) y/y	0.9	0.9

12/08/2020
07:30 GMT

Inflation report

CPIF m/m	-0.1	0.6
CPIF y/y	0.2	0.7
CPI m/m	-0.1	0.6
CPI y/y	0.2	0.7

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Output in the Construction Industry

construction output m/m	15	8.2
construction output y/y	-29.8	-39.7

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Index of Services

Index of Services m/m	8.2	0.9
Index of Services 3m/3m	-20.3	-18.9

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Index of Production

Manufacturing output m/m	10	8.4
Manufacturing output y/y	-15	-22.8
Industrial production m/m	9.9	6
Industrial production y/y	-12.2	-20

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Trade Balance

total trade balance	2.650	4.296
visible trade balance	-4.4	-2.80
non-EU trade balance	-0.66	0.649

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

GDP First Estimate

GDP (1st) q/q	-20.5	-2.2
GDP (1st) y/y	-22	-1.7

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

GDP First Estimate

GDP (1st) q/q
GDP (1st) y/y

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Index of Production

Manufacturing output m/m
Manufacturing output y/y
Industrial production m/m
Industrial production y/y

12/08/2020
06:00 GMT

Trade Balance

total trade balance
visible trade balance
non-EU trade balance

11/08/2020
16:00 GMT

San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly to speak at a "Professional Business Women of California, Annual Conference" and give a fireside chat. No prepared remarks expected. No media availability.

11/08/2020
15:00 GMT

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak in a webinar with the Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness.

11/08/2020
12:55 GMT

Redbook Retail Sales Index

Redbook retail sales m/m

11/08/2020
12:30 GMT

PPI

Final Demand PPI	0.3	-0.2
PPI ex. food and energy	0.1	-0.3
PPI ex. food, energy, trade	0.2	0.3

11/08/2020
12:15 GMT

Housing Starts – CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp)

CMHC housing starts

205

211.7

11/08/2020
12:00 GMT

Social Financing

social financing (date tba)

1.846

3.434

11/08/2020
12:00 GMT

New Loans

new loans (date tba)

1.200

1.811

11/08/2020
12:00 GMT

Money Supply

M2 ytd y/y (date tba)

11.1

11/08/2020
10:00 GMT

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

NFIB Small Business Index

100.4

100.6

11/08/2020
09:00 GMT

ZEW Current Expectations Index

11/08/2020
09:00 GMT

ZEW Current Conditions Index

-69.3

-80.9

MNI Technical Analysis

FI MARKET ANALYSIS

FX MARKET ANALYSIS

POLITICAL RISK HIGHLIGHTS

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US COVID-19 Tracker – Aug 11

by Tom Lake

Chart 1 – Short-Term COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. All data correct as of 0600BST 11 August, and represents full-day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures.

Full article PDF attached below:

https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNI_P...

POLICY

DATA

POLITICAL RISK

ECONOMIC DATA CALENDAR AND EVENTS

MNI Technical Analysis

FI MARKET ANALYSIS

FX MARKET ANALYSIS

POLITICAL RISK HIGHLIGHTS

MNI CENTRAL BANK PREVIEW

MNI CENTRAL BANK REVIEW

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

MARKETS REAL-TIME COVERAGE

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