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Villeroy says Eurosystem has growing confidence prices will return to target by end 2025, but now a risk of doing too much.
The MNI Markets team’s base case agrees with the sell-side consensus that we have now seen the final hike, we also think that the emphasis on private sector AWE will be a little reduced while there may be tweaks to APF buckets in upcoming quarters.
Further strong data surprises could force the RBNZ to hike again in November, but headwinds lie ahead, according to ex staffers.
- Poland and Germany exchanged barbs over a cash-for-visas scandal which may have resulted in the issuance of thousands of illegal work visas by Warsaw. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for an investigation of the matter and warned that he may introduce additional border checks. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau replied that Scholz's comments "violate the principles of sovereign equality of states, which constitutes a foundation of [Germany's] good neighbourly relations and friendly cooperation with Poland".
- DGP circulated a source report noting that Polish authorities were caught off guard by the scale of Ukraine's recent rapprochement with Germany, which came alongside a sharp deterioration in its relations with Warsaw.
- Poland will report its unemployment rate for the month of August at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. The jobless rate may have remained unchanged at 5.0%, according to Bloomberg consensus.
MNI discusses the RBNZ's path ahead and rising chances of a further OCR hike in November --On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
President Biden’s approval rating remains underwater ahead of a highly consequential week in Congress which is likely to conclude with a US government shutdown.
- Democrat strategists will be hoping to capitalise on Republican disfunction by laying the blame for a shutdown at the door of “extreme MAGA Republicans,” a key framing ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
- A survey from Yahoo News/YouGov released this week found that, "After more than a year of job approval numbers at or just over 40%, Biden’s rating has slipped to 38% approve, 56% disapprove. That’s a significant decline from percentages that peaked at 43% and 44% in April and May, and the worst result for the president since his previous low of 35% approve, 56% disapprove in August 2022."
Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating
Analysts now consider the chance of a government shutdown on October 1 the most likely scenario after a week which saw House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) forced to abandon plans to hold a weekend vote on a partisan 30-day stopgap measure to keep the government funding beyond September 30.
- PIMCO: “The chances of a government shutdown are increasing – our odds had been at ~65%+ odds (i.e., more likely than not), but after the last few days, folks on the Hill are now putting the odds of a shutdown between 80-99%.”
- PIMCO: continues: "McCarthy “now faces a Sophie’s choice: 1) Work on a bipartisan basis (i.e., with Democrats) .. and very likely lose his speakership, or 2) insist on passing bills that may appease the House Freedom Caucus, but have no chance of being signed into law..."
- Lawmakers will have five days to avert a government shutdown when Congress returns on Tuesday.
- Reuters has published a useful guide of what would be affected by a government shutdown, including, “roughly half of the Pentagon's 800,000 civilian employees would be furloughed”: Here
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