MNI POLICY: Evans Sees Fed Inflation Overshoot To 2.5%

Chicago Fed President told MNI event Wednesday he's surprised markets see that view as hawkish on rates.

POLICY

MNI INTERVIEW: UK's RPI Replacement Should Not Be Set In Stone

The priority for the UK should be to provide transparent inflation data, rather than assigning set functions to particular series by law, top statistics officials tell MNI.

MNI INSIGHT: RBA Eyes New Effective Lower Bound For Rates

The RBA is adjusting its view of the effective lower bound, opening the way for modest easing later this year, MNI understands.

DATA

MNI DATA IMPACT: US Aug Existing Home Sales Fastest Since 2006

Brisk sales pace should continue through the rest of the year, though large price increases could hinder home ownership rates in the coming months.

POLITICAL RISK

Trump To Announce SCOTUS Pick Saturday 1700ET (2200BST, 2300CET)

White House confirms that President Donald Trump will announce his pick for the vacant SCOTUS seat on Saturday at 1700ET (2200BST, 2300CET).

Chancellor Not Set To Deliver A Budget This Year

There is increasing speculation on social media and wires that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will not deliver a Budget this November.

  • Instead the Chancellor will announce a new raft of support measures in a statement to the Commons tomorrow (see 1558BST bullet).
  • Not holding a budget is likely due to the gov'ts preference for more flexible measures intended to deal with the economic situation and level of COVID-19 restrictions of the time.
  • Last Budget was delivered on March 11.

Pence: Trump To Announce New Sanctions On Cuba

Wires reporting that President Donald Trump will announce a new series of sanctions on Cuba today, as he holds an event to honour the veterans of the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961.

  • The announcement of increasingly hardline measures against the Cuban gov't is likely targeted at Cuban-Americans in key swing states such as Texas and Florida.
  • In Florida, notably, the Cuban-American vote is substantial and if Trump can get the cohort - which by-and-large is extremely hostile to the Cuban gov't - to vote Republican and in large numbers it could help him to carry the state for a second consecutive election.

ECONOMIC DATA CALENDAR AND EVENTS

ImpactCountryDate/timeEventData Points / descriptionforecastprevious

MNI INTERVIEW: UK's RPI Replacement Should Not Be Set In Stone

The priority for the UK should be to provide transparent inflation data, rather than assigning set functions to particular series by law, top statistics officials tell MNI.

MNI Technical Analysis

POLITICAL RISK HIGHLIGHTS

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

  • The United States passed the grim milestone of 200,000 coronavirus-related fatalities on September 22, more than 100,000 higher than the country with the second-highest number of COVID-19 fatalities (India with 90,020). The United States now accounts for 20.7% of total global COVID-19 fatalities and 21.8% of confirmed cases despite its population only accounting for 4.3% of the world's total. On September 22 the US's average new case increase per day across the past week stood at 43,411, the highest figure for a month.
  • UK Prime Minsiter Boris Johnson announced a tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in England on September 22 as the seven-day average increase in cases exceeded 4,000 per day for the first time since May 5, when the UK remained in its initial full lockdown. The rise in cases has not yet corresponded to a major uptick in COVID-19 related fatalities, although the 37 fatalities due to the virus registered on September 22 was the highest 24-hour total since July 14.
  • Russia records 6,109 new cases on September 22, its highest daily total since July 18. On September 22, President Vladimir Putin talked up Russia's 'Sputnik-V' potential COVID-19 vaccine in his address to the UN General Assembly, offering it to all UN workers worldwide once it has completed clinical trials.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 23. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months

Full article PDF attached below:

https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNI_P...

MARKETS REAL-TIME COVERAGE

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