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MARKET NEWS TOP STORIES
The NBH is likely to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle and hike its policy rate by 100bps on June 28 as HUF weakness keeps supporting inflation expectations.
The MNI Markets team would be very surprised if we did not see a 50bp hike and think that the market is generally looking for the alternate path from April to become the baseline path at this week’s meeting.
Spain factory gate inflation slows for a second consecutive month but still sits close to the record highs seen in March.
Days after his removal as member of the ruling party's top brass, Tajuddin Abdul Rahman held a press conference on Monday, exposing an alleged plot to unseat UMNO chief.
- Tajuddin called on UMNO President to step down, while suggesting that former PM Najib Razak and UMNO Deputy President Mohamad Hasan were involved in attempts to pressure party chief Zahid Hamidi into resigning as long ago as in 2020. However, the alleged plot failed as Hasan bailed, while Najib changed tack and refocused his efforts on winning the nomination for chairman of UMNO-led Barisan Nasional alliance.
- Tajuddin added that the incumbent Prime Minister should be given UMNO presidency, as used to be the norm when the party ruled the country in the past. Note that he has recently been nominated as ambassador to Indonesia but is yet to receive his credentials from the King. PM Ismail Sabri's decision to appoint the controversial lawmaker to a diplomatic position has sparked criticism.
- While Tajuddin is known for his links to Ismail Sabri, both Najib and Mohamad have been seen as Zahid's allies. The two camps have clashed over the preferred timing of the next general election, with Zahid's team pushing for a snap poll. Hovewer, Tajuddin's comments expose divisions within Zahid's camp that can lead to renewed turmoil within Malaysia's largest party.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will outline plans to hold a second independence referendum later on Tuesday, BBC reports.
- Sturgeon will make a statement on the matter in the Scottish Parliament around 14:00 BST.
- She is expected to express her intention to hold the vote in October 2023, no matter if Westminster agrees to her plan.
- The UK government has repeatedly pushed back against the idea and made it clear it would not give its consent.
- The Institute for Government noted that if the Scottish Parliament passes a referendum bill, the UK government would likely challenge it in the Supreme Court.
- In the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, the "No" side won with 55.3% voting against separation from the rest of the UK.
President Joe Biden is planning to announce an extension of some of the increased U.S. troop presence in Poland and unveil changes to U.S. deployments in the Baltic states that were authorised prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NBC reports citing multiple sources.
- "The changes to the U.S. troop footprint could affect countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. To the extent there could be new troops deploying to the region on a more permanent basis, officials said the number would be minimal, but several hundred could remain in Poland on a more permanent basis."
- The changes would be unveiled on the heels of the announcement of a fresh U.S. military support package for Ukraine, which includes advanced surface-to-air missile defence systems, and of a declaration from G7 nations to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes."
- Biden's announcement would also come amid an overhaul of NATO defence strategy unveiled by the alliance's Secretary General on Monday. NATO is looking to increase the size of its rapid reaction force to 300,000 troops from 40,000 and "drastically upgrade" its eastern defences.
Moody's has confirmed that Russia's failure to pay interest on two Eurobonds by the time the grace period expired on Monday constituted a default event, adding that defaults on future coupon payments are likely.
- A formal default is usually declared by rating agencies, by top firms have stopped rating Russia's sovereign debt and its companies due to sanctions imposed by the European Union.
- Russia maintains that it has not defaulted on foreign debt as the money sent to creditors was blocked by Western sanctions. Kremlin spokesman Peskov reiterated that position on Monday.
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