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MNI Fed Preview - June 2023: How To Communicate A Hawkish Hold

The FOMC’s tightening cycle is likely to “skip” June’s meeting, with the Committee holding rates while keeping a hiking bias.


MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C June 12

The EU, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Germany, Spain, France, Finland and potentially Portugal all look to issue next week.

MNI INTERVIEW: Policy Lags Argue For Fed Pause, Blinder Says

The economy is showing enough signs of slowing to warrant a stop to rate hikes, former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder tells MNI.

MNI SOURCES: ECB Seen Likely Hiking Twice More

A hike in July is likely to follow a 25bp increase in the deposit rate next week, but after that debates will intensify, sources say.

MNI: Weak Price Data Adds To Rate Pressure On PBOC- Economists

With factory gate inflation deep in negative territory, calls grow for PBOC policy action.

Political Risk

Court Unseals Trump Indictment, Special Council Jack Smith Remarks 15:00 ET

MSNBC has reported that Special Council Jack Smith, the man leading the Department of Justice probe into former President Donald Trump, will deliver an on-camera statement today at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST.

  • CNN reported a short time ago that a court has unsealed the indictment against Trump which confirms the charges leveled against Trump. The unsealed indictment can be read here: LINK
  • Reuters reports that Trump faces 37 criminal counts including the willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding government documents or records, corruptly concealing government documents or records, and making false statements.
  • Reuters writes that, according to the indictment, Trump showed a person a map related to a military operation in 2021 and says the documents included information on US and foreign countries defense and weapon capabilities, US nuclear information, potential US and allies vulnerabilities to military attack, and plans for possible retaliation in response to foreign attack.

US Official Confirms Blinken Travel To China

Reuters reporting that a Biden administration official has confirmed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, "is expected to travel to China next week and be there on June 18."

  • More information in bullet at 16:14 BST: LINK

3 Month Ceasefire Between Colombia And ELN Rebels To Begin August 3

Reuters reporting that Colombia and the left-wing guerilla group ELN, the last recognised rebel group in the country, have agreed to a temporary three-month ceasefire coming into force on August 3 after talks in Havana, Cuba.

  • Reuters: "The ELN is Colombia's oldest remaining rebel group, and the talks are the cornerstone of efforts by leftist President Gustavo Petro - himself once a member of the now-demobilized M-19 insurgents - to bring "total peace" to Colombia."
  • Pablo Beltran of ELN said in March ahead of the resumption of talks: "We took the first steps to firm up a bilateral, national and temporary ceasefire which will create better conditions for Colombians' mobilization and participation in the peace process."
  • France24 reported on Monday this week that Colombia's top prosecutor had, "scrapped an arrest warrant for ELN guerrilla leader Antonio Garcia, who is leading talks with the government that seek to find a lasting peace to decades of conflict."

WH Confident In Legal Arguments Ahead Of SCOTUS Student Debt Ruling

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton has told reporters that the White House is "confident in the legal arguments that our team made," as the US Supreme Court prepares to rule on the constitutionality of President Biden's student debt relief programme.

  • Dalton says: "our focus is on the strong legal arguments we've made at the Supreme Court. We believe that this is an imperative programme that provides critically needed breathing room to thousands of student borrowers."
  • Gregory Caldeira, a political science professor at Ohio State University, told CNBC he wouldn’t be surprised if the highest court rules against Biden: “The court’s conservatives have been very aggressive in striking down the decisions of Congress and the president."
  • It should be noted that although the prevailing view is that the SCOTUS is likely to rule against the programme, the court made a surprise decision yesterday to strike down a racially gerrymandered Republican Congressional map with two conservatives siding with liberal justices.
  • A SCOTUS ruling is expected to come on a Thursday before the end of June.


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