MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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MNI Fed Preview - July 2024: September Signals In Spotlight

The Fed will hold rates for an 8th consecutive meeting at its July meeting, putting immediate attention on any signals about rate cuts beginning in September.

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MNI Fed Preview - July 2024: September Signals In Spotlight

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI U.S. Weekly Macro Wrap: Q2 Demand Strength Will Keep Fed Patient On Cuts

This week's data was mixed, but overall showed that domestic demand remained solid in Q2.

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MNI INTERVIEW: Worries Over US Jobs Weakness Overdone- Bullard

Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reviews the U.S. economic outlook ahead of the July Fed meeting.
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MNI INTERVIEW: September Fed Cut 'Not Assured' - Lockhart

Former Atlanta Fed president discusses the Fed outlook ahead of the July central bank meeting.
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MNI:Canada Program Spending +15% Brings Apr-May Budget Deficit

Canada's public debt charges have risen 34%.

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Political Risk

Politics On Hiatus As Olympics Get Underway

A messy and chaotic period in French politics comes to a (temporary) end on 26 July, with the opening ceremony for the Olympic Games in Paris. President Emmanuel Macron has said that no new gov't will be appointed during the course of the Games, which conclude with the closing ceremony on 11 August. For this period at least, PM Gabriel Attal and the Cabinet remain in place in a caretaker capacity, dealing with day-to-day issues (notably the arson attack that has crippled the Parisian high-speed rail network).

  • Once the Games are concluded, the three most likely scenarios to resolving the political impasse appear to be:
    • The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) decides on anew candidate, Macron accepts and there is a minority left gov't.
    • The centre-left (Socialist Party, The Ecologists) break off from the NFP, forming a gov't with the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of Macron and potentially the centre-right Les Republicains.
    • Absolutely no agreement is possible, resulting in some form of technocratic gov't akin to that of former ECB President Mario Draghi who took over a neutral administration in Italy in 2021.
  • There is no set timeframe for when a new gov't must be appointed. However, the longer the current period of political limbo continues, the longer the period in which the gov't cannot materially alter policy.
  • Notably, earlier on 26 July the European Commission officially placed France, among six others, under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Under the EDP, the EU now expects the gov'ts to supply medium-term plans on deficit reduction by mid-September. The Commission will then provide its evaluation of the plans in November.
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FRANCE

R&W Poll Shows Close Race In Swing States

The latest swing state opinion polling from Redfield and Wilton shows a number of close contests, with most crucial races within the margin of error. The poll shows Republican nominee former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona (46%/43%), Georgia (47%/42%), Michigan (44%/41%), Nevada (45%/43%), North Carolina (46%/43%) and Pennsylvania (46%/42%). Wisconsin is a dead heat at 44% each.

  • The poll also shows Trump leading in Florida with Harris ahead in Minnesota. While not impossible, it is unlikely that that either of these states will prove pivotal, with Florida (hasn't gone Democrat since 2012) viewed as likely Trump and Minnesota (not gone red since 1972) likely Harris.
  • The main takeaway from state-level polling at present is that most results are showing the key six (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI) as being within the margin of error, making them effective toss-ups.
  • The other factor in the R&W poll is that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is garnering enough support in almost all swing states to materially impact the result.
  • At present the Kennedy campaign claims to be on the ballot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. He has filed papers to get onto the ballot in Arizona and Wisconsin.

Chart 1. Swing State Opinion Polling, %

Source: Redfield and Wilton. N.b. Fieldwork 22-24 Jul. Sample Sizes: 627 (Arizona), 715 (Florida), 1,483 (Georgia), 628 (Michigan), 580 (Minnesota), 560 (Nevada), 700 (North Carolina), 1,014 (Pennsylvania), 620 (Wisconsin). MoEs: Arizona: 3.91%, Florida: 3.66%, Georgia: 2.54%, Michigan: 3.91%, Minnesota: 4.07%, Nevada: 4.14%, North Carolina: 3.70%, Pennsylvania: 3.08%, Wisconsin: 3.94%

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US

FM Wang To Borrell-EU EV Probe 'Typical Trade Protectionism'

(MNI) London - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell have held talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers in Vientiane, Laos. Comments on wires attributed to Wang: Hopes the EU will view China's development objectively and amicable, and achieve a smooth transition in China-EU relations.

  • Wang says the EU's anti-subsidy investigation into China's electric vehicles is a 'typical trade protectionism', and not conducive to the global green transition. Says he hopes the two sides will find a reasonable solution through dialogue and consultation.
  • Wang's comments come as negotiations between Chinese firms and the EU continue ahead of the November deadline for EU member states to decide on whether to make tariffs on Chinese-made EVs permanent.
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CHINA-EU

Kremlin On France Sabotage Arrest, Trump Peace Plan & Funds For Ukraine

Wires carrying comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov on a number of subjects:

  • Peskov says that the Kremlin has seen 'curious information' in the media about France detaining a Russian man over alleged sabotage plans. Says that the Russian embassy in Paris needs to be informed about the case by French authorities. Comes amid arson attacks on the Parisian high-speed rail network on the day the Olympic Games open, and security alert at Basel-Mulhouse airport on the Franco-Swiss border that has seen the airport evacuated.
  • On the US election, regarding a WSJ article co-authored by Donald Trump's former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo titled 'A Trump Peace Plan for Ukraine', Peskov says that the Kremlin 'is not wearing rose-tinted spectacles when it comes to Trump...[he] is a representative of a political elite which harbours anti-Russian sentiment...[Trump] is not that different from the others.'
  • Peskov says Russia 'will carefully consider' how to respond to the EU's step to transfer windfall profits from frozen Russian assets held in the EU to Ukraine. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmedthat the funds would be transferred to Kyiv today, posting on X "Today we transfer 1.5 billion euros in proceeds from immobilised Russian assets to the defence and reconstruction of Ukraine. There is no better symbol or use for the Kremlin’s money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live,"
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RUSSIA

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