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Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
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Emerging Markets
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Data
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Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
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About Us
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI INTERVIEW: ECB Should Cut In October, Says Kazaks
MNI BRIEF: October ECB Rate Cut “Very Likely” – Villeroy
MNI BRIEF: Japanese Regions Note Recovery, Pick Up - BOJ
MNI TV: Key Exclusive Highlights For Week 40
MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico To Continue Easing Through 2025 - Tapia
THAILAND: CPI Inflation Picks Up But Remains Low, Expected To Exceed 1% in Q4
Thai headline CPI in September came in below consensus at 0.6% y/y but picked up from 0.35%. Core was in line at 0.8% y/y, highest in just over a year, but also up on August’s 0.6%. Inflation remains very low driven by lacklustre growth as well as government subsidies and price caps. Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput has said that the central bank remains “outlook dependent” and will adjust monetary policy if needed but doesn’t see signs of deflation.
- Inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year with the government forecasting October to rise to 1.25%. The increase is due to higher oil prices and the impact of recent floods. 2024 inflation is forecast to be 0.2-0.8%.
- The government continues to put pressure on BoT for a rate cut with finance minister Pichai saying today that “inflation is too low” and it is looking at whether higher inflation would support growth. It wants to discuss the inflation target with the BoT but Pichai wouldn’t comment on reports of a 1.5-3.5% corridor. The current band is 1-3%.
MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Door Shuts On Back-to-Back
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI U.S. Weekly Macro Wrap offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week.
- Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_week_in_macro_241004_5ab846453b.pdf
MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Polls Remain Static
Executive summary:
- Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) faced off this week in the sole vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. While snap polls showed an even contest, pundits generally agreed that Vance edged the debate on style, a position we took in our reaction to the debate.
- Overall, we agree the conventional wisdom that a vice-presidential debate doesn’t move the needle dial on a presidential election race will remain true this year.
- As polling has been more or less static since the Harris-Biden switch, any movement before Election Day may depend on how the administration reacts to a series of unfolding crises.
- There has been more data suggesting that Harris is closing the gap to Trump on handling inflation.
- The GOP is firmly favoured to flip control of the Senate but the House of Representatives outlook is less clear.
- Inside: A roundup of polls, election models, prediction market data, and notable news from the week.
Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly
MACRO ANALYSIS: JPY and CAD Saw Largest Reserve ‘Inflows’ As % GDP In Q2 [3/3]
- Converting the quoted USD amounts into local currency, we saw the largest quarterly increases in the level of reserves being held in CAD (4.9%) and JPY (4.1%).
- The latter comes as JPY holdings in reserves fell ‘only’ from $654.5bn to $641bn despite USDJPY jumping from 151.35 to 160.88 on an end-quarter on end-quarter basis, offering more compelling entry points. USDJPY has since swung back to 143.63 for end Q3.
- In terms of crude inflows as shares of local GDP, JPY tops the table at 0.7% GDP in Q2 after a strong 1.2% GDP in Q1 whilst CAD follows with 0.6% GDP after 0.3% GDP.
- The reduction in US dollar share was equivalent to an outflow of 0.3% GDP.
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POWER: Sweden Eyes Temporay Capacity Measures to Avoid Grid Expansion Delays
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Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.