EURGBP TECHS

Clears Key Support

MNI ECB PREVIEW - January 2021: ECB On Autopilot

With no material policy developments expected, the focus will instead be on the press conference. Front and centre will be questions about the impact of the latest Covid social restrictions on economic activity.

POLICY

DATA

MNI DATA IMPACT: China's Economy Recovers; GDP +2.3% Y/Y

The Chinese economy, impacted heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic, registered 2.3% y/y growth in 2020, with Q4 GDP improving to 6.5% y/y as both industrial output and fixed-asset investment peaked

POLITICAL RISK

Confirmation Of Already-Trailed Executive Orders From Pres. Biden On Day One

Headlines from wires confirming the well-trailed stories that after his inauguration as president later today, Joe Biden will sign 17 executive orders reversing some of President Donald Trump's key policies, as well as implementing some of his own.

  • These include: the US rejoining the WHO and becoming a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement once again, reversing the Muslim travel ban, halting construction on the Mexico border wall, halting the Keystone XL oil pipeline (much to Canada's chagrin), requiring face masks to be worn in all federal buildings.
  • Other executive orders will seek to revoke Trump policies on immigration enforcement, environmental standards, and to promote racial equality.
  • Notably, the slew of executive orders does not include the rejoining of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal), which Trump withdrew the US from in 2018.

Conte Survives As PM, But Lack Of Majority Bodes Ill For Stability

While PM Giuseppe Conte's gov't avoided being ousted in a vote of no confidence in the Senate last night, the lack of an overall majority in the upper chamber hints at difficulties further down the line for the gov't.

  • In the event, 156 senators voted in favour of Conte's gov't with 140 against and crucially 16 abstaining. While this avoided a gov't defeat, the numbers fell short of the 161 senators required to hold an absolute majority in the chamber.
  • As such, if the Conte gov't does not repair relations with former PM Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva party it will be at risk of losing votes. 16 IV senators voted to abstain last night, should they switch to voting against the gov't it could see the gov't defeated.
  • The gov't cannot be assured of reaching 156 senators in future votes, with two of those coming from centre-right Forza Italia senators voting against party lines.

Invitation To MNI Political Risk Webcast On Thursday Jan 21

MNI is hosting a webcast is titled " Political Risk Flash Points In 2021" on January 21.

The event will begin with a talk from Tom Lake, Head of Political Risk at MNI, followed by a Q+A session moderated by MNI Senior Markets Analyst, Tim Cooper.

Topics to be covered:

  • 'Joebama' Administration To See US Re-forge Old Alliances, Leaving Trump Allies Out In The Cold
  • Light At The End Of The Tunnel As COVID-19 Beaten Back By Vaccine
  • Developed Market Elections in 2021: Germany, Japan, the Netherlands
  • UK Goes It Alone, even with a deal in place
  • EU Looks Towards A More Cohesive 2021 After Cracks Exposed In MFF Talks
  • Key Geopolitical Flashpoints in 2021

This webcast will be held for the following timezones:

  • APAC: 1500 Hong Kong Time/1600 Tokyo Time - APAC Registration Link
  • EMEA/NASA: 1030ET/1530 London Time - EMEA/NASA Registration Link
  • MARKETS REAL-TIME COVERAGE

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