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MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico Minutes Reinforce March Rate Cut-Roldan

The former manager of monetary research at Banxico Jessica Roldan says a majority on the board sees room to reduce rates.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Williams Says Rate Cuts Later This Year

New York Fed president says in Axios interview further rate hikes are not in his baseline outlook.

MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Feb 26

The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Belgium are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E14.5bln, down from E28.6bln this week.

Political Risk

MNI Interview With Former Banxico Monetary Research Manager

  • MNI interviews former Banxico monetary research manager on interest rate policy -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Small Business Confidence Highest Since 2021

Small business confidence is at the highest level since President Biden took office in 2021 according to the CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q1 2024.

  • CNBC: “Even in the face of stubborn inflation, small business owners are striking a more positive tone… Twenty-eight percent of small business owners describe the current state of the economy as “excellent” or “good,” up five percentage points from the prior quarter and up from 18% year over year.”
  • The survey will provide a boost for the Biden administration, who have regularly cited small business growth as a key marker of economic strength. Biden said in January: "Every time someone starts a new small business, it’s an act of hope and confidence in our economy. This week, we learned that Americans filed 16 million new business applications during the first three years of my administration."
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month: "Since [Biden] took office, we’ve seen a record small business boom in our country, with 16 million new business applications over the last three years. This boom reflects people’s confidence in their economic situations and the strength of the U.S. economy now and for the future."

Figure 1: Overall Confidence Among Small Business Owners in the US

Source: CNBC/Survey Monkey Small Business Survey

Trump Victory Expected In South Carolina Republican Primary

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has escalated attacks on former President Donald Trump ahead of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary on Saturday.

  • Haley, who has slammed Trump this week for failing to criticise Russia for the death of Alexi Navalny, said: “Trump is siding with a dictator who kills his political opponents. Trump sided with an evil man over our allies who stood with us on 9/11. Think about what that told them.”
  • On a likely 2024 matchup between Trump and President Biden, Haley said: “When you look at Donald Trump today versus Donald Trump of 2016, it’s different. And I think that we have to go and focus on what the newer generation wants, what we need to do going forward. And it’s not having two 80-year-old candidates. I think that’s a problem.”
  • Trump is expected to win the primary comfortably with much of the post-election analysis likely to focus on Haley’s vote share and the future viability of her campaign. Although Haley has pledged to, “continue until the last vote is counted,” donors may consider withdrawing from her campaign if she suffers another heavy defeat.
  • However, most observers believe that Haley is remaining in the race to capitalise on any unforeseen complications to Trump candidacy from his legal issues and to position herself for a future leadership position in the GOP in the event Trump loses the presidential election in November.

Figure 1: South Carolina Republican Primary Polling

Source: 538

Dep Treasury Secretary Adeyemo: "I Don't Expect The Government To Close"

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, speaking at the Council of Foreign Relations on today's Russia sanction package, says he doesn't believe the government will shutdown next month.

  • Adeyemo: "We've seen this a number of times. I don't expect the government to close, I think Congress will find a way to continue to fund the government," but later adds that it's up to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to "keep the deal that he cut," likely referring to the deal struck between former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden last Spring which raised the debt ceiling and set topline spending numbers for FY2024 - number which are currently disputed by House conservatives.
  • Adeyemo adds: "The more important thing that we have to ask ourselves is why do we continue to do this to ourselves? It makes absolutely no sense to do this. It's no good for anyone. Fundamentally, the United States has the ability, and the capacity, to continue to pay its bills... This comes down to the speaker making a decision to continue with a deal that he cut."
  • Separately, Adeyemo says he believes that the House of Representatives will pass the USD$95 billion foreign aid package, which includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and other allies: "I think they have to... a majority of House members are supportive of the Ukraine bill."

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