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MNI BRIEF: China Targets "Around 5%" Growth For 2024

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China has set a 2024 5% GDP growth target and 3% CPI goal.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI BOC Preview, Mar'24: A Stepping Stone To April Guidance Shift?

The Bank of Canada isn't expected to meaningfully change guidance this meeting, with greater attention on its latest assessment of underlying inflation trends

MNI: Bostic Sees 2 Fed Cuts In '24, Wants QT Long As Possible

Atlanta Fed president says risks are balanced, but flags threat of pent-up exuberance when interest rates are lowered.

MNI BRIEF: No Red Light In Service Inflation Surge-Campos Neto

Central Bank of Brazil Governor Roberto Campos Neto said there is still a benign convergence of inflation.

Political Risk

New Focus On Immigration Blunts Biden's Gains On Economy

A new survey from the Wall Street Journal has found that, although voter views on the economy are improving, President Joe Biden is suffering in a head-to-head matchup with former President Donald Trump due to rising concerns over immigration.

  • WSJ notes: "Some 31% of voters in the survey said the economy had gotten better over the past two years, during the majority of Biden’s tenure, a rise of 10 percentage points from a Journal poll in December. And 43% said their personal finances are headed in the right direction, a 9-point increase from the prior survey."
  • The Journal asks, "whether an improving economy will lift Biden’s re-election prospects against former President Donald Trump. The answer so far appears to be that it is helping Biden just a bit—but also that more voters are turning their attention instead to immigration, a perilous issue for the president."
  • Democratic pollster Michael Bocian said, noting that more respondents cited immigration (20%) than the economy (14%) as the most important issue to their vote: “It’s not like they’re saying to us, ‘The economy is wonderful; that’s why we must re-elect Biden.’ They’re just not as concerned about it. So, they’re turning to other issues, which is net good for Biden at the end of the day. But then he has to go win those issues.”

Figure 1: Voter Views on Economy Over Two Years

Source: Wall Street Journal

NYT Survey Shows Depth Of Biden's Vulnerabilities

A new surveyfrom the New York Times/Siena College has shown highly pessismitic voter views on President Biden's age, popularity, and prospects in a hypothetical 2024 matchup with former President Donald Trump.

  • NYT notes: “A striking 61 percent of the voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 now believe he is “just too old” to lead the United States effectively…The misgivings about the president’s age, which cut across generations, gender, race and education, pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid.”
  • NYT’s Nate Cohen writes: “Mr. Biden is very unpopular. He’s so unpopular that he’s now even less popular than Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was four years ago.”
  • On the risk posed by ‘double haters,’ Cohen notes: “Overall, 19 percent of registered voters in the Times/Siena survey have an unfavorable view of both candidates. … They backed Mr. Biden by a three-to-one margin among those who voted in 2020, but now he holds the support of less than half.”
  • On Biden’s cratering support amongst minority voters: “Mr. Biden’s support among nonwhite voters keeps sinking. He held just a 49-39 lead among the group, even though nonwhite respondents who voted in the 2020 election said they backed Mr. Biden, 69-21.”

Figure 1: The Following Candidate is “Too Old” to be President

Source: NYT/Siena College

Gantz Arrives At WH For Meetings With VP Harris And NSA Sullivan

Israeli War Cabinet member Benny Gantz has arrived at the White House for meetings with US Vice President Kamala Harris and President Biden's key advisors - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk.

  • Gantz's trip, which is also expected to include a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken tomorrow, was not formally sanctioned by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hints at deepening fissures between Netanyahu's coalition and members of the opposition - represented by Gantz.
  • Gantz told reporters at the White House a few moments ago: "With friends we need to speak openly and this is what I am going to do."
  • The meeting comes after Harris made the administration’s most forceful call for a cease fire yet, saying in a speech in Alabama yesterday: “Given the immense scale of suffering in Gaza, there must be an immediate cease-fire at least for the next six weeks, which is currently on the table…”
  • Over the weekend the US began airdropping food into Gaza for the first time. Politico reported that the decision signals, “just how ineffective the U.S. has become at influencing its ally Israel: As this kind of move is typically reserved for deliveries in hostile territory or behind enemy lines.”

Croatian Prime Minister Calls For Spring General Election

Wires reporting that Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has called for general election, "this spring," and confirming that the Sabor - the Croatian Parliament - is to be dissolved, "no later than March 22."

  • Comes after the ruling HDZ and its coalition partners last week voted against the dissolution of parliament, prompting criticism from the opposition that the general election could be punted until after the European elections in June.
  • Political analyst Ankica Mamić told Euractiv last week: “If the HDZ accepted the request for support for the dissolution of Parliament, it would prove weak. The position always rejects the opposition’s demands; HDZ has always done that.”
  • Euractiv notes: "Polls so far indicate that the HDZ will most likely win the elections but that it will be difficult to form a new government."

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