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A$ Rallies On More Hawkish RBA Outlook


Bounce Considered Corrective

MNI Banxico Preview - February 2023: Focus On Future Guidance

All surveyed analysts expect Banxico to raise the overnight rate by 25bps to 10.75% at the February meeting.


MNI PODCAST: FedSpeak - Wright Sees Steady Inflation Decline

Fed to hike a few more times before pause and then hold until at least year end, St. Louis Fed economist says.

Political Risk

Le Maire And Habeck Talk Up EU Unity Following Washington IRA Talks

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire have touted EU unity at joint press conference following the completion of talks with Biden administration officials on the US Inflation Reduction Act and EU Green Deal Industrial Plan.

  • Habeck warned: "It is important that the Transatlantic Partnership does not become a race for subsidies," and commended a year of unity from the US and EU.
  • Le Maire noted, in German, that it was the first time that a Franco-German delegation of finance ministers had travelled to Washington for joint talks. A sign, Le Maire said, of the strength of relationship between the EU leaders.
  • Habeck said that both sides agreed on the need for "transparency," for cooperation on critical raw materials, and to work on easing dependence on China.
  • Focus now turns to the February 9 European Council where the EU Green Industrial Deal Plan will be subject to "political debate" with a legal proposal to be drafted by mid-March, to be unveiled in full ahead of the 23 March European Council, according to EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen.

Rep Santos Facing House Ethics Probe

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has confirmed that freshman House Rep George Santos (R-NY) is facing a probe from the House Ethics Committee and the GOP will take necessary action in response to the probe's findings.

  • McCarthy told CNN, in response to a question asking if Santos will be forced to resign: "Ethics is moving through, and if Ethics finds something, we’ll take action."
  • McCarthy's comments are the first confirmation of a probe into Santos' conduct on the campaign trail including numerous fabrications of his personal and professional life and more serious allegations that he misused campaign financing.
  • Santos last week recused himself of committee duties but that has done little to quell mounting calls from his Long Island continents to resign from Congress.
  • If Santos resigns, it would trigger a special election which most analysts believe would favour Democrats.
  • McCarthy currently controls 222 House seats, an effective four-seat majority considering the 218 votes required to pass legislation with a full House present and Santos' case amplifies McCarthy's vulnerability to retirements, illness, or absence of his lawmakers.

MNI Interview With St. Louis Fed Economist

  • MNI speaks to St Louis Fed economist Mark Wright about inflation and Fed policy. - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact

Macron Still Faces Risks To Pension Reforms Despite Low Protest Numbers

Mujtaba Rahman at Eurasia Group on French strikes regarding pension reforms, edited comments below:

  • "A third day of action/inaction against pension reform in France today was much feebler than its predecessors. Numbers striking and marching in the streets fell well below the first protests on 19 and 31 Jan. Good news for President Macron? Maybe. [...] BUT There is another day of strikes and marches on Saturday [...]. Another poor turnout and the momentum of protest may deflate."
  • "That would help Macron and his PM Elisabeth Borne in parliament where they face screeching left and far right opposition to their attempts to raise the official pension age from 62 to 64 by 2030 [...] A 1st reading of pension reform is supposed to be guillotined through Assembly (lower house) by the end of next week."
  • "The big street protests have given cold feet to some of Macron’s own centrist supporters and encouraged mischief-making among their on/off centre-right allies. As things stand, Macron and Borne still just about have the 289 votes they need but could yet lose key amendments which will hobble their legislation. A big turn out today would have made their parliamentary battle harder. All eyes now turn to Saturday."


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