We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over  the past week. Please find the full report here:

US week in macro_241213.pdf

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said yesterday that NATO members need to “shift to a wartime mindset,” and significantly increase defence spending – a sign that Trump’s hardline rhetoric on the alliance could compel a shakeup in European defence budgets. 

• Rutte argued: “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us,” with Semafor noting the comments followed reports that European NATO countries are weighing hiking their defense spending benchmark to 3% of GDP in 2025.
• Semafor adds that Trump’s “criticism of member countries who haven’t met the target, coupled with war on European soil, has created new urgency in the continent’s capitals to take defense more seriously, with Rutte pushing a return to Cold War-era budgets: “The threats to our freedom and security are just as big.””

Figure 1: Annual Defence Spending of NATO Countries

Source: Semafor, NATO

Henry Hub has extended its losses on the day to completely reverse yesterday’s storage withdrawal related gains. Rising temperatures and lower residential demand are adding pressure.

• US Natgas JAN 25 down 5.2% at 3.28$/mmbtu
• US Natgas FEB 25 down 3.4% at 3.1$/mmbtu
• EBW Analytics sees possibility of 19 Bcf/d demand loss next week though Christmas week looks colder. Jan gas down 3.1% at $3.35/mmBtu.
• The EIA weekly gas inventories showed a larger than expected withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 6 at 190bcf.
• US natural gas storage likely saw an above-average draw of 119 bcf in the week to Dedc. 13, according to a Reuters survey.
• US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is estimated near the highest since January at 14.32bcf/d today, BNEF said.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand edges lower to 106.3bcf/d today but remain above normal, according to Bloomberg.
• The NOAA forecast has cooled slightly with above normal still in the west but near normal spreading further from the west in the 6–10-day period. The 8–14-day forecast shows below normal on the East Coast.
• US domestic natural gas production rose to the highest since Feb. at 105.7bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg.

Delivering his first speech as prime minister, Francois Bayrou says outside the Hôtel Matignon that 'reducing France's debt is a moral obligation'. Bayrou: "I believe that this issue of deficit and debt poses a moral problem and not just a financial one".

• Outgoing PM Michel Barnier said prior to Bayrou's comments: "We proposed a difficult budget, to reduce our deficit. And with a parliamentary majority, particularly in the Senate, we were close to a balanced agreement. This deficit has not disappeared, as if by magic from a motion of censure. We would be wrong to forget it and the debt that goes with it, otherwise they will be brutally reminded to all of us. Such a debt, such a deficit, are taxes for our children."
• Bayrou echoing Barnier's comments would seem to imply a similar stance to on the next state budget his gov't will eventually attempt to move through the National Assembly. As such, the spectre of rejection by the opposition and another showdown over the use of Art 49.3 to force a budget through already looms over the new administration.