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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

USDCAD TECHS

Trend Structure Remains Bullish

US TSYS

Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum

AUDUSD TECHS

Key Support Still Exposed

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

MNI: Fed's Daly Sees Another 75BP As Baseline For July Meeting

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Daly says inflation will remain uncomfortable for a few months but price expectations remain stable.

MARKET NEWS TOP STORIES

MNI: Daly Says The Fed Can Engineer A Soft Landing

San Francisco President says policymakers can go further if needed to curb inflation.

MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jun 27

The EU, Germany, and Italy are due to sell bonds next week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E14.5bln, down from the E17.7bln (ex retail BTP Italia) sold this week.

MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: EM FX Suffer Despite Aggressive Tightening

USD strength and accelerating inflation have ‘forced’ EM central banks to maintain their hawkish stance in 2022 and prolong their tightening cycle, therefore increasing the risk of accelerating the economic downturn.

Political Risk

Pres Biden's Approval Slide Continues Ahead Of Week Of Summits

US President Joe Biden has seen his approval rating continue to slump ahead of a key week of summit in Europe.

  • According to Five Thirty Eight's presidential approval tracker, Biden now sits at 39.2% approval and a marked downward trajectory can be clearly observed on the chart plotting approval over time.
  • Biden departs this weekend for G7 and NATO summits in Europe. G7 and NATO leaders at the summits will continue to lay the blame for inflation and energy prices at the door of Russian President Vladimir Putin but that is unlikely to bolster Biden's approval as polls suggest that the electorate blames Biden administration for rising fuel prices.
  • More pertinent might be the fallout from today's Supreme Court ruling. Democrat strategists and analysis will be closely monitoring polls to see if a reframing of the midterms as a referendum on abortion will simulate increased approval of the president.

President Joe Biden Approval RatingFive Thirty Eight

Biden Condemns SCOTUS Ruling And Sets Up Midterm Strategy

US President Joe Biden has delivered remarks from the White House condemning the Supreme Court decision to overrule the precedent set by Roe vs Wade.

  • Biden uses the remarks to state that the Democrat strategy for the midterms in November will be squarely focused on women's rights in response to the ruling.
  • Biden: "Let me be very clear and unambiguous. the only way we can secure women's rights to chose is for Congress to restore the protections of Roe v Wade as law. No executive action from the President can do that."
  • Biden: "Voters need to make their voices heard. This Fall we must elect more senators and representatives that will codify women's right to chose into Federal law."
  • Biden says: "This Fall Roe is on the ballot" echoing comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) earlier: “…a woman’s right to choose is on the ballot in November. We cannot allow them to take charge and achieve their goal: to criminalise reproductive freedom.”

Blinken: US Very Active To Ensure Europe Has Energy It Needs

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the US is continuing to take "very active steps to ensure Europe has the energy it needs."
  • Speaking at a press conference in Berlin following G7 meetings, Blinken said that energy security is "more than a conversation" and and "active consultation to look at energy concerns" is ongoing all the time.
  • Blinken says "we are doing everything we can to support transitions away from Russian oil" and says that the US has "directed more LNG to Europe" than ever.
  • The Secretary concedes that "it isn't easy at all, and dependence on Russian oil has built up over decades. You cant just flip a switch but there seems to be a real commitment in Europe to do that and for people in Europe continuing to allow Russia to have a stranglehold, through energy, on Europe, I believe is unacceptable and unsustainable, and European leaders are taking very courageous steps to move away from that."
  • Blinken also uses the presser to brush off suggestions that the US-led alliance of countries opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is faltering in the face of high inflation at home.
  • G7 meetings continue over the weekend with a key meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden scheduled to take place before the leader's summit on Sunday.

12:30 ET 17:30 BST: Pres Biden To Deliver Remarks On SCOTUS Ruling

12:30 ET 17:30 BST: The White House has announced that President Joe Biden will deliver an unscheduled address on today's Supreme Court decision in the case Dobbs vs Jackson's Women's Health, the ruling which will roll back constitutional protections to abortion provided under Roe Vs Wade.

  • Biden's address will be available to watch here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
  • The White House says "President Biden will address the nation following the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe vs. Wade at 12:30 p.m. ET. The president will speak on the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision from the Cross Hall of the White House."
  • The ruling will have significance for the midterm elections in November. Vulnerable Democrats are likely to use the SCOTUS ruling to frame the midterms as a referendum on abortion.
  • The White House is likely to push Congress to legislate the protections of Roe vs Wade but it is difficult to see how a GOP filibuster can be overcome without a "nuclear option" being deployed.
  • Moderate Democrat Senator Joe Manchin has already stated today that he will support Roe Vs Wade legislation making the prospect of bypassing a filibuster more feasible.

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