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10Y Put Spd Unwind


‌‌(Z1)‌‌ Focus Is On Support


Biden: We Are Not Seeking A New Cold War


Expiries for Sep22 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)



MNI STATE OF PLAY: Norges Bank To Hike; Stay With Rate Path

MNI (London)

Norway's central bank will weigh supply constraints and the continuing global spread of Covid as it considers adjusting its projected rate path.


MNI STATE OF PLAY: Fed Nears Taper, Dots to Skew Hawkish

The FOMC will likely reach an internal consensus on beginning to taper QE purchases this year.

MNI STATE OF PLAY: Riksbank Sticks To Zero Rate Forecast

Sweden's central bank is prepared to look through a period of above-target inflation.

MNI SARB Preview - September 2021: SARB to Hold at 3.5%, Inflation Vectors Still Contained

The SARB is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 3.50% this week, with inflation still broadly contained within the 3-6% target range on both a near and medium-term basis Markets will eye the Bank's assessment of the recent GDP rebasing and discussions of a potential move towards a narrower 3-4% inflation targeting framework.

MNI STATE OF PLAY: Split BOE Likely To Agree To Do Nothing

The Bank of England is divided over progress in eliminating spare capacity.

Political Risk

Biden: We Are Not Seeking A New Cold War

US President Joe Biden speaking to the UN General Assembly general debate. Select comments below:

  • Link:
  • '"Every nation needs to bring their highest possible ambitions to the table when we meet in Glasgow."'
  • "Bombs and bullets cannot defend against COVID-19, or its future variants. To fight this pandemic, we need a collective act of science and political will. We need to act now to get shots in arms as fast as possible,"
  • "US military power must be our tool of last resort, not our first. It should not be used as an answer to every problem we see around the world. Today, many of our greatest concerns cannot be solved or even addressed through force of arms."
  • 'We are not, I repeat, we are not seeking a new Cold War"
  • Confirms that his administration will work towards another doubling of US climate financing to UD100bn in order to support countries around the world to reduce emissions and combat the impacts of climate change.

Latest Projection Has R2G Short Of Maj; Traffic Light, Jamaica Possible

The latest @europeelects seat projection for EurActiv shows that based on recent polling, the SPD would emerge as the largest single party in the Bundestag, with the CDU/CSU in a distant second place, and the Greens in third.

  • Total: 739 (+30): SPD-S&D: 210 (+57), CDU-EPP: 131 (-69), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 127 (+60), FDP-RE: 91 (+11), AfD-ID: 90 (-4), LINKE-LEFT: 51 (-18), CSU-EPP: 39 (-7). +/- vs. 2017 election
  • Should the final result reflect this projection the following coalition gov'ts would be possible: 'Grand Coalition' (SPD-CDU/CSU), Traffic light coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP), Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP), Germany coalition (SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP), Kenya coalition (SPD-Greens-CDU/CSU).
  • Red-green (SPD-Green), black-green (CDU/CSU-Green), or 'R2G' red-red-green (SPD-Green-Die Linke) coalitions would all fall short of an overall majority.
Chart 1. Europe Elects for EurActiv Bundestag Seat Projection

Source: @europeelects

Labour's Starmer Plans Party Changes, Risks Fight With Left, Unions

Leader of the opposition Labour Party Sir Keir Starmer has announced this morning in a meeting of the shadow cabinet proposed changes to the way the Labour Party elects its leaders, how sitting MPs can be de-selected by constituency associations, and how motions are heard on the floor of the party conference.

  • Starmer has suggested the party revert to its 'electoral college' system of electing party leaders, where Labour MPs, trade union affiliates, and party members get a say, rather than the current 'one member, one vote' system brought in under Ed Miliband. This system is seen as the primary reason behind the leadership election win for left-winger Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. A reversion to the old system would give MPs (generally a more centrist bloc than unions or the grassroots membership) a greater power in electing leaders.
  • For moderates, the return of an electoral college would calm fears of another far-left candidate emerging to take control of the party. However, for the left of the party and many of the trade unions, it could be seen as a centrist stitch-up intended to keep power in the hands of the moderates.
  • The proposals also seek to raise the threshold for triggering a de-selection process as the constituency level and among the parliamentary Labour party.
  • These proposals have already been criticised by some of the UK's largest trade unions, and set the stage for a feisty and bitter party conference in Brighton from 25-29 September.

General Debate Set To Get Underway With Bolsonaro And Biden Up First

The general debate session of the UN General Assembly is set to get underway at 0900ET/1400BST/1500CET in New York.

  • Link to livestream:
  • First two addresses are set to come from Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Joe Biden. Both will be closely watched for their comments on climate change, with the former viewed as a major global stumbling block to progress on reducing emissions and protecting the rainforest, while the latter is being positioned as a global leader on fighting climate change.
  • This morning's session also includes speeches (live or recorded) from Chinese President Xi Jinping, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
List of UN General Debate Speakers, Morning Session 21 Sep

Source: United Nations



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