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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Tests The 50-Day EMA

MNI BRIEF: Euro Area House Prices Grow At Record Pace in 2020

FRANKFURT (MNI)

House prices rose across the eurozone during 2020, the opposite direction to that seen during the last downturns, ECB Bulletin highlights.

MARKET NEWS TOP STORIES

MNI Gilt Week Ahead - June 21 2021: BOE Week

After a busy week for data last week in which labour market data was encouraging, inflation was higher than expected but retail sales disappointed, focus now switches to Thursday's MPC policy announcement.

MNI INSIGHT: Impact Of Weaker Yen A  'Mixed Bag' For BOJ

BOJ officials see lower yen offering some support in the inflation battle although higher import costs to weigh on corporate profits.

MNI SOURCES: EU To Avoid N.Ireland Dispute Sparking Trade War

The EU will be angry, but restrained, if the UK unilaterally extends its grace period for trade with Northern Ireland.

Political Risk

PM Loses Confidence Vote, Will Have To Resign Or Snap Election Called

Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven has lost a vote of no confidence in the Riksdag (parliament), meaning he will have to either resign or call a snap general election.

  • The motion of no confidence was passed with 181 votes in favour, 109 against, and 51 abstaining.
  • Lofven will hold a press conference at 1130CET (0530ET, 1030BST) reacting to the vote and outlining his intentions.
  • If he does not call a snap election, Lofven could seek to lead a caretaker gov't until the next parliamentary elections are due to take place in September 2022. This would require negotiation with the Speaker of the Riksdag, centre-right Moderate member Andreas Norlen.
  • Opinion polling shows Lofven's centre-left Social Democrats as the most popular party in Sweden, ahead of the Moderates and the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats. The polls do not show a major shift in support from the three largest parties in comparison to the previous election in 2018, with the Social Democrats down marginally, while the Moderates and Sweden Democrats have recorded a slight improvement in their support since 2018.

Rebukes For Macron, Le Pen As Voters Avoid 1st Round Of Reg. Election

Both President Emmanuel Macron's Republique En March (REM) and Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalist National Rally (RN) performed well below expectations in the first round of elections for France's regional presidencies held on Sunday according to preliminary results. The outperformers were France's historically dominant political groups, the centre-right Gaullist Les Republicains (LR) and their allies, and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and their allies.

  • The RN came in first place in the first round in only one province, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur in the far south-east of the country. This compares starkly with the last regional elections held in 2015, when the then-National Front came first in six regions in the first round vote.
  • REM and its allies are not leading in any regions, and in the north eastern Hauts-de-France region the party looks set to fail to make the second round (where winning just 10% of the vote is required).
  • Alongside the poor performance of the two parties expected to make it through to the second round of the presidential election in 2021, the major story of the election was the poor turnout. Initial estimates put turnout at just 32%, well down on the 49% recorded in 2015 and 53% in 2010. LR and PS were able to exploit this low turnout in their historic heartlands to secure victories in areas where they are incumbents heading into the second round.
  • Focus this week will turn to moderate parties that came in third place or below in the first round. Many will be under pressure to withdraw from the second round and lend their support to other moderates in order to keep the RN candidate from winning power, although there is no guarantee such an agreement will take place.

U.S. Nuke Envoy Voices Hope For +ve Response From N. Korea (Yonhap)

The new U.S. special representative for North Korea said Monday he looks forward to Pyongyang giving a "positive response soon" to Washington's dialogue offer, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent remarks that Pyongyang should be ready for both dialogue and confrontation. Ambassador Sung Kim made the remarks during a meeting with Seoul's top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, in Seoul, saying Washington will also be prepared for either dialogue or confrontation. "We will be prepared for either, because you know, we are still waiting to hear back from Pyongyang for a meeting," he said. "Hopefully dialogue indicates that we will get a positive response soon."

Joyce Takes Leadership Of Junior Ruling Coalition Party

Sky New Australia note that they "can confirm Barnaby Joyce has returned as leader of the Nationals. Mr Joyce defeated Michael McCormack after a spill motion was called in the Nationals party room on Monday morning."

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