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MNI INTERVIEW: BCB Close To Ending Its Hiking Cycle - Volpon

Former deputy governor for international affairs Tony Volpon talks to MNI in an interview.

MNI INTERVIEW: Tariffs Would Hit Automakers, Raise Prices-S&P

S&P Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley discusses the potential impact on production, jobs and costs.

MNI Gilt Week Ahead

We look ahead of Mann's speech (and other MPC speakers), Q4 GDP and the upcoming 10-year syndication.

MNI BRIEF: EC Says First Priority Is Deal With US Not Tariffs

Brussels' top priority remains getting a deal with the US not tariff retaliation

Political Risk

US: Voters Says Trump Is Doing What He Promised On Campaign Trail

A new survey from CBShas found that most Americans describe Trump as "tough," "energetic," "focused" and "effective" — and believe he is “doing what he'd promised during his campaign…”

  • CBS notes: “Many say he's doing more than they expected — and of those who say this, most like what they see. Very few think he's doing less."
  • CBS adds: “His partisans and his voters, in particular, say he's got the right amount of focus on matters like ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs and deporting those who are in the country illegally. His deportation policy finds majority approval overall — just as most voters said they wanted during the campaign — and that extends to sending troops to the border, too."
  • The report warns: “But one key issue looms: Most Americans say the administration isn't focused enough on lowering prices. Inflation was a key reason Mr. Trump won the election.”

Figure 1: “Describe Donald Trump as…?” 

image

Source: CBS

SECURITY: Zelenskyy Eyes High-Level Talks With Trump Admin Ahead Of Munich Conf.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian and US teams are working on arranging a meeting between Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump, according to Ukrainian media outlet Unian, cited by Reuters. 

  • According to Unian, top Trump administration officials will visit Ukraine this week and Zelenskyy intends to meet with US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference, which kicks off on Friday, February 14. Vance is currently on his first trip abroad since taking office. He will speak at an Artificial Intelligence summit in Paris this evening.
  • Ukrainian and Russian spokespeople have managed expectations that any armistice talks can be initiated without significant concessions on security guarantee from the other side, lowering optimism that a breakthrough can be reached in Munich.
  • The conference will proceed without any representation from Russia, echoing the June 2024 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine', which failed to move the conflict closer to a resolution.  
  • The Financial Times reports that, according to a leaked internal Russian presentation from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin last April, the Kremlin recognises that, "Western sanctions pressure, as well as economic overtures, had succeeded in driving a wedge between Moscow and some of its nearest trade partners."  

ISRAEL: Def Min-Military Will Be On Alert Following Hamas Statement On Hostages

Following Hamas' announcement that the next release of Israeli hostages planned for the weekend had been postponed, Defence Minister Israel Katz claims that Hamas not releasing hostages "is a violation of the ceasefire deal". Katz: "I have instructed the IDF to prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza and to protect the communities. We will not allow a return to the reality of October 7." There remains the significant risk of an escalation in the conflict once again, something that would both inflame regional tensions and risk a humanitarian crisis given many Palestinians have returned to their home towns across Gaza following the ceasefire's implementation. 

  • The Families' Headquarters for the Return of the Abductees called on the Israeli gov't "to refrain from actions that jeopardize the implementation of the signed agreement and to act to continue the agreement."
  • As i24 reports, in this first phase of the ceasefire, "a total of 17 more hostages are set to be released, with nine of them still alive according to the list in Israel's possession.[...]. At the end of this phase, 59 hostages will still remain in the Gaza Strip. 24 of them, unless proven otherwise, are alive, and their release depends on the agreements that will be made for phase two of the deal."

US: Schumer Suggests Democrats Could Leverage Government Shutdown

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has signalled in a 'letter to colleagues' that Senate Democrats will use leverage in the upcoming government funding negotiations to push back against President Donald Trump's attempts to reform the federal bureaucracy.

  • Schumer: "President Trump has handed the keys of the Presidency to his cronies, sycophants, and radicals who are hell-bent on pursuing a coordinated agenda - mapped out in grave detail in Project 2025 - to hollow out the government and cut off critical services to American communities across the country. This is for one purpose: More power and wealth for the very rich."
  • Schumer added that Senate Democrats, "will use our votes to help steady the ship for the American people in these turbulent times. It is incumbent on responsible Republicans to get serious and work in a bipartisan fashion to avoid a Trump Shutdown."
  • Schumer's letter comes as Democrat and Republican negotiators appear far from agreeing on a topline number for FY2025 funding, just 32 days from the funding deadline.
  • Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) similarly indicated to NBC yesterday that Democrats may be willing to use a shutdown as leverage to oppose government reforms: “...for the last two years, [Republcians] needed Democratic votes for every single continuing resolution and they should not count on that this time,”
  • Punchbowl noted this morning: “We’ve been crystal clear in our view that Washington is drastically underestimating the chance for a government shutdown after March 14.”

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