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MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: Will The Rebound In China ‘Liquidity’ Matter For Asset Prices This Year?

Investors have been questioning if the rebound in China ‘liquidity’ this year will be enough to stimulate both domestic and international asset prices.

MARKET NEWS TOP STORIES

MNI INTERVIEW:  Wages Hotter Than Labor Dept Data- Atlanta Fed

People who got new jobs saw 8.5% wage growth in July, up from 7.9% in June, according to the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.

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MNI Monthly Macro Data Round Up

We review the major data releases of the past month, including the major releases from the US, Eurozone, UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Markets

MNI INTERVIEW: End Of Covid Activity Drags UK Down Q2 GDP

The ONS says the phasing out of test and trace and Covid vaccinations was a major factor behind the UK's GDP contraction.

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​MNI Banxico Review – August 2022: Options Open

Banxico’s governing board unanimously decided to hike the overnight rate by 75bps to 8.50%.

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Political Risk

Lawmakers To Vote On Key Election Bill Amendment

Thai lawmakers will hold a special meeting today as the deadline for passing an amendment to the election bill that would boost the chances of smaller parties to get into parliament is set to expire.

  • The amendment raises the divisor used in calculating the distribution of party list seats to 500 from 100, thus lowering the effective electoral threshold.
  • A joint sitting of senators and MPs last Thursday collapsed due to lack of quorum, seen as a deliberate move by some lawmakers to derail the bill.
  • This may happen again as many parties, including the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, suggested they might boycott the vote.
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THAILAND

Talk Of 2022 Snap Election Grows Louder In Malaysia

The next general election (GE15) will likely be held this year, Barisan Nasional and UMNO leader Zahid said at an event of Wanita Barisan Nasional, the women's wing of the UMNO-led alliance.

  • Zahid continued to pile pressure on Prime Minister Ismail Sabri, who serves as UMNO Vice President, to call a snap election. "I am confident that he is a party man, and he knows the best timing," he told his audience.
  • Zahid noted that six parties have expressed interest in joining Barisan Nasional. We know that PBM's Zuraida Kamaruddin has submitted an application to join BN after recently defecting from Bersatu (Perikatan Nasional).
  • Ismail Sabri said he would dissolve parliament if a study showed that majority of voters favour Barisan Nasional. He tasked Wanita BN with producing a report on voter attitudes to inform his decision.
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ASIA

White House To Unveil "Ambitious Roadmap" For Taiwan Trade Relations

The White House Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell has told reporters that the US plans to unveil, "an ambitious roadmap for trade negotiations" with Taiwan, in the coming days.

  • Jennifer Doherty of Newsweek reports that the WH coordinator says that the new plan will, "deepen ties with the island, but also remains committed to 1-China [the One-China policy]."
  • Campbell: “We call on Beijing to reopen those channels it has closed" to “enable responsible risk reduction in crisis communication.”
  • Campbell says that China "overreacted" to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) trip to Taiwan and claimed that Beijing used the trip as a "pretext" to "launch a pressure campaign on Taiwan to try to change the status quo."
  • Campbell did not have anything to add to an earlier Wall Street Journal report that President Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping will hold a face-to-face meeting in SE Asia in November: "We don’t have anything further in terms of time or location."
  • Campbell added that, "the US will ensure that our presence, posture, and exercises account for China's more provocative and destabilising behaviour."
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US-CHINA

FBI Probe Unlikely To Reduce Trump's Popularity

The warrant for the FBI search of Former President Trump's Florida residence is expected to be released at some point today. Ahead of that, analysts are looking for signs that the FBI probe will influence Trump's political standing ahead of the midterm elections in November, and president elections in 2024.

  • There is a significant volume of polling data to suggest that Trump's various legal battles have done little to curtail his popularity. A Morning Consult report shows that support for Trump strengthened as the January 6 Congressional Committee hearings were broadcast over the summer.
    • According to Morning Consult, Trump registered his highest level of support for a 2024 bid during the most recent batch of polling, in August.
  • Preliminary evidence from betting markets supports the polling data. Betting exchange Smarkets shows a modest seven percentage point drop in Trump's implied probability of taking the 2024 Republican nomination following the FBI search. Still comfortably ahead of his most likely challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
  • There are variables to consider. The nature of material taken from Trump's residence during the search may be especially compelling. Suggestions that Trump may have seriously breached national security protocols by removing documents related to sensitive military operations of nuclear secrets may play poorly with a section of Trump's base.
  • Also to be considered: The probe may increase support for Trump in a similar way Republican efforts to impeach President Bill Clinton may have inadvertently led to Democrats gaining five House seats in the 1998 midterm elections.
  • The most likely conclusion is that the FBI probe is unlikely to affect the 2022, or 2024 election equations unless the investigation leads to a criminal conviction.

Chart 1: Share of Republican voters who would vote for Donald Trump if the 2024 Republican primary was held today, % (Morning Consult)

Chart 2: Implied probability 2024 Republican presidential nomination, % (Smarkets)

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