Thai headline CPI in September came in below consensus at 0.6% y/y but picked up from 0.35%. Core was in line at 0.8% y/y, highest in just over a year, but also up on August’s 0.6%. Inflation remains very low driven by lacklustre growth as well as government subsidies and price caps. Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput has said that the central bank remains “outlook dependent” and will adjust monetary policy if needed but doesn’t see signs of deflation.

• Inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year with the government forecasting October to rise to 1.25%. The increase is due to higher oil prices and the impact of recent floods. 2024 inflation is forecast to be 0.2-0.8%.
• The government continues to put pressure on BoT for a rate cut with finance minister Pichai saying today that “inflation is too low” and it is looking at whether higher inflation would support growth. It wants to discuss the inflation target with the BoT but Pichai wouldn’t comment on reports of a 1.5-3.5% corridor. The current band is 1-3%. 

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI U.S. Weekly Macro Wrap offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week.
• Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_week_in_macro_241004_5ab846453b.pdf

Executive summary:

• Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) faced off this week in the sole vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. While snap polls showed an even contest, pundits generally agreed that Vance edged the debate on style, a position we took in our reaction to the debate.
• Overall, we agree the conventional wisdom that a vice-presidential debate doesn’t move the needle dial on a presidential election race will remain true this year.
• As polling has been more or less static since the Harris-Biden switch, any movement before Election Day may depend on how the administration reacts to a series of unfolding crises.
• There has been more data suggesting that Harris is closing the gap to Trump on handling inflation.
• The GOP is firmly favoured to flip control of the Senate but the House of Representatives outlook is less clear.
• Inside: A roundup of polls, election models, prediction market data, and notable news from the week. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

• Converting the quoted USD amounts into local currency, we saw the largest quarterly increases in the level of reserves being held in CAD (4.9%) and JPY (4.1%).
• The latter comes as JPY holdings in reserves fell ‘only’ from $654.5bn to $641bn despite USDJPY jumping from 151.35 to 160.88 on an end-quarter on end-quarter basis, offering more compelling entry points. USDJPY has since swung back to 143.63 for end Q3.   
• In terms of crude inflows as shares of local GDP, JPY tops the table at 0.7% GDP in Q2 after a strong 1.2% GDP in Q1 whilst CAD follows with 0.6% GDP after 0.3% GDP.
• The reduction in US dollar share was equivalent to an outflow of 0.3% GDP.