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Eurozone Macro Signal – July 2024: Limited Progress On All Fronts

Eurozone economic activity has been mixed recently across sectors and countries, underscoring that the emerging recovery will be characterized by a still-sluggish pace of expansion held back by restrained fixed investment and declining fiscal stimulus.

Political Risk

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Biden Presser Unlikely To Quell Rebellion

  • US President Joe Biden delivered a press conference yesterday that was sufficiently strong to buy the President time, but littered with enough gaffs and stumbles to keep a Democrat rebellion against his candidacy simmering.
  • A widely tipped 'deluge' of Democrats calling on the president to step aside failed to materialise, but the number of lawmakers on the record against his nomination rose and is expected to continue growing in the coming days.
  • With Congress now recessed, Biden has a temporary reprieve from the kind of in-person meetings that could harden Democrat resolve into a unified front. The Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee on Monday, which the Biden camp hopes will refocus attention back on Trump. Today, Biden will head to crucial swing state Michigan for a campaign event, where he will warn of the dangers of Trump's Project 2025’s agenda.
  • Biden said in a statement on yesterday’s CPI report: “…we are making significant progress fighting inflation." If he can hang onto the Democratic Party nomination, his team is likely betting that an improved economic landscape will boost his polling numbers as the election draws closer.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said allied leaders made “major moves” at this week’s NATO Summit.
  • Poll of the Day: "The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago."
Full article:US Daily Brief

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Biden Presser Unlikely To Quell Rebellion

Daily round-up of news from the US.

Executive Summary:

  • US President Joe Biden delivered a press conference yesterday that was sufficiently strong to buy the President time, but littered with enough gaffs and stumbles to keep a Democrat rebellion against his candidacy simmering.
  • A widely tipped 'deluge' of Democrats calling on the president to step aside failed to materialise, but the number of lawmakers on the record against his nomination rose and is expected to continue growing in the coming days.
  • With Congress now recessed, Biden has a temporary reprieve from the kind of in-person meetings that could harden Democrat resolve into a unified front. The Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee on Monday, which the Biden camp hopes will refocus attention back on Trump. Today, Biden will head to crucial swing state Michigan for a campaign event, where he will warn of the dangers of Trump's Project 2025’s agenda.
  • Biden said in a statement on yesterday’s CPI report: “…we are making significant progress fighting inflation." If he can hang onto the Democratic Party nomination, his team is likely betting that an improved economic landscape will boost his polling numbers as the election draws closer.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said allied leaders made “major moves” at this week’s NATO Summit.
  • Poll of the Day: "The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago."

Please find the full article attached below:

MNIPOLRISKUSDaily120724.pdf

ESTONIA-Kallas To Resign As PM 15 July To Take Up EU Role

Estonia's ERR reporting that PM Kaja Kallas is set to offer her resignation to President Alar Karis on Monday 15 July as she prepares to take up the role of European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Kallas has served as PM since 2021, and since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 has been one of the EU's most vocal leaders calling for a hard-line stance against President Vladimir Putin.

  • The confirmatory vote on Kallas' appointment is set to take place alongside that of the College of Commissioners, which in turn requires the re-appointment of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a second term.
  • Once Kallas resigns, Karis will begin consultations with parties in the Riigikogu (parliament) on forming a new gov't (the entire gov't resigns when the PM steps down in Estonia). Kallas' centre-right liberal Reform Party is likely to be given the mandate as the largest in parliament.
  • Reform has already selected Climate Minister Kristen Michal as its candidate for PM, and is seeking backing from its coalition partners - the centre-left Social Democrats and liberal Estonia 200.
  • It remains unclear when Karis will appoint a new candidate for PM, or indeed when the new gov't will take office.
  • Estonia sits as one of the eurozone's smallest economies, but has played an outsized political role partly due to Kallas' prominent role on the EU stage and the country's position bordering Russia. It remains to be seen if the incoming gov't proves as influential as Kallas' administration.

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