A new survey from AP-NORC has found that, while only 38% of voters believe the economy is in good shape, voters are split on whether Trump or Harris is better able to handle unemployment, the cost of groceries and housing, or tariffs.

• AP notes: “Trump’s most consistent advantage continues to be immigration, where he has an 8-percentage point advantage over Harris among registered voters. Harris does best on climate change, abortion policy, and election integrity, where she maintains an advantage of at least 20 percentage points among voters.”
• AP concludes: “…the findings reaffirm that Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime and foreign affairs.”

Figure 1: Voters on Which Candidate Would Better Handle Following Issues

Source: AP/NORC

Former President Donald Trump has now overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris on most of the major presidential election forecast models, including 538, Silver Bulletin, The Economist, and DDHQ. 

• While the race remains a toss-up, the probability shift comes after a strong two-week polling period for Trump in two of the northern swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin and a hardening of his slight edge in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
• It should be noted that momentum can often be overstated in a presidential election cycle, with polling often providing multiple swings, rather than a straight trend line.
• 538 notes: "...a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate."
• It should also be noted that all the seven key swing states remain within the margin of error for polling, meaning that the election may ultimately be determined by which direction a potential polling miss goes.
• A Washington Post-Schar poll of more than 5,000 registered voters released today finds, "47 percent who say they will definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among likely voters, 49 percent support Harris and 48 percent back Trump."

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast Model 

Source: The Hill/DDHQ

This tracker offers a comprehensive summary of the policy proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump on the 2024 campaign trail. Where possible, each policy is accompanied by a nonpartisan costing and a score on the likelihood of the policy becoming law.

• The tracker covers a range of policies related to taxation, tariffs, banking, energy, defense, foreign policy and domestic issues like immigration, women's reproductive rights, and healthcare. 

Please find the full article attached below: 2024 Policy Policy Tracker

Deputies in the National Assembly will begin debate on the 'revenue' side of the Barnier gov'ts 2025 national budget this evening at 2130CET (1530ET, 2030BST). The 'draft finance law' (PLF) has almost 3,500 amendments attached, although this is lower than the 2024 total of 5,238. The gov't faces a number of challenges with regard to the controversial document that envisages spending cuts and tax hikes that intend to bring the budget deficit under control, to 2.8% of GDP in 2029 from 6.1% in 2014. 

• Looming over the entire debate is the prospect of the budget being defeated due to the lack of a parliamentary majority for the gov't. This in turn could see the gov't push the fiscal plans through without a vote under Art49.3 of the French constitution. If the gov't chooses this path it then opens itself up to a no-confidence vote that could risk a collapse of the conservative administration of PM Michel Barnier.
• Crucial will be the actions of the far-right Rassemblement National, whose abstentions or support are essential to avoid the leftist New Popular Front parties defeating the gov't. Speaking to CNews earlier, RN leader Jordan Bardella said "If red lines were crossed, of course the government exposes itself and would expose itself to censure from us. This budget has neither direction nor coherence. It weakens savers, the France of work and businesses ,"