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5Y Inflation Breakeven At December Highs Long-Term More Anchored

  • The Fed terminal pushing higher today (5.17% July, +2bps) along with end-2023 rates (4.85%, +2bps) hasn’t stopped another increase in inflation breakevens.
  • The 5Y is off session highs but still +3bp on the day at 2.49%, at levels last seen in early December.
  • With the 10Y +4bps, the 5Y5Y also sees a solid increase on the day but at 2.25% is still well within recent ranges.
  • Whilst well-anchored long-term measures will please the Fed, there's been a notable decoupling with medium-term measures since both were close to 2.25% back on Jan 20.

5Y breakeven (white) and 5Y5Y breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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