EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% of the Jun 1 2021 - Sep 28 2022 bear trend
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and Friday’s high
• PRICE: 1.0921 @ 16:24 BST Apr 17
• SUP 1: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 1.0879 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0784 50-day EMA

Despite the pullback from Friday’s high, EURUSD remains in an uptrend. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and more importantly, has confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started Sep 28 2022. The focus is on 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0879.

13:00 ET 18:00 BST: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is shortly due to hold a press conference to provide an update on debt ceiling negotiations and respond to remarks made by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) earlier today in a speech at the New York Stock Exchange.

• Livestream: Schumer Press Conference
• McCarthy used the NYSE speech to accuse President Biden of risking a default by refusing to negotiate with Republicans on government spending.
• McCarthy said: “The problem gets solved only when both parties work together. Had the president agreed to negotiate in good faith we’d already be done. I do not want to see this president bumble into a default."
• McCarthy also promised to hold a House vote on a GOP spending bill expected to be unveiled this week.
• Any Republican legislation is highly unlikely to progress through the Democrat-controlled Senate but may act as a launching pad for both sides to begin discussions.

Monday's Europe rates / bond options flow included:

• ERQ3 96.50/96.625/97.75 call fly bought for 1 in 4k