EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.9066 High Sep 28
- RES 3: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8929 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 0.8836 @ 16:11 GMT Mar 10
- SUP 1: 0.8821 Low Mar 10
- SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
- SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish despite the pullback from its recent highs. The cross has this week cleared resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8854 today. A resumption of gains would open 0.8929, Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a bull trend. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, Feb 28 low would reinstate a bearish threat.
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EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.9023 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8979 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 0.8879 @ 16:45 GMT Feb 8
- SUP 1: 0.8875/0.8852 Low Feb 2 / High Jan 25
- SUP 2: 0.8843 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8792 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger
EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish despite the Monday-Tuesday sell-off and the cross remains within range of its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high, has been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8843, the 20-day EMA.
CANADA: Muted Reaction To First BoC Summary Of Deliberations
Markets broadly look through the BoC’s new Summary of Deliberations, with 2Y GoC yields dipping another 1bp for -3bp on the day (saw a larger move after the 2Y auction) and USDCAD now unchanged since the release at 1.343 (+0.2%).
Members framed the decision along two dimensions:
⦁ whether to leave the policy rate where it was or to increase it by 25 basis points
⦁ whether to maintain similar forward-looking language as in the previous policy statement or to adjust it to signal a pause
STIR: BLOCK, Sep'23 SOFR Put Spd
- 20,000 SFRU3 94.68/95.18 put spds, 25.75 on splits ref 94.925 at 1324ET
