MARKET INSIGHT: What to Watch: ECB Annc, Weekly Claims, 10Y TIPs, Earnings
Tsy futures trading mildly weaker, inside narrow overnight range on light volumes (TYU2<255k) as markets await ECB rate annc at 0815ET, ECB Pres Lagarde's press conf at 0845ET, 25bp hike widely exp. Fed rate hike expectations of 75bp next week Wednesday (as well as the Sep meeting) holding steady - data between now and then unlikely to sway exp.
- Data coming up at 0830ET:
- Initial Jobless Claims (244k, 240k)
- Continuing Claims (1.331M, 1.340M)
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (-3.3, 1.5) followed by
- Leading Index (-0.4%, -0.6%) at 1000ET
- Tsy auctions:
- US Tsy $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
- US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS auction re-open (91282CEZ0) at 1300ET
- Equities: Trading mildly weaker at the moment, ESU2 -9.0 at 3953.50 after trading over 50-DMA yesterday. Ongoing earnings releases proving positive: Dow Inc (DOW) $2.31 vs. $2.145 est, DR Horton (DHI) $4.67 vs. $4.473, ATT (T) $0.65 vs. $0.616, AutoNation (AN) $6.48 vs. $6.185, Marsh & McLennan (MMC) $1.91 vs. $1.856. American Airlines (AAL) near in-line at $0.76 vs $0.764 est.
- Sampling of post-close annc's: Boston Beer (SAM) $4.423 est, PPG Ind $1.752 est, Tenet Healthcare (THC) $0.827 est, Seagate (STX) $1.9132 est, SVB Financial (SIVB) $7.723.
- Cross asset: US$ bounce weighing on spot Gold (-15.25, 1681.33), Crude broadly weaker (WTI -4.03 at 95.85).
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Historical bullets
JPY: QUICK updated tech for USDJPY
- Next immediate resistance is right here at 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing, and this would be followed by 136.88 High Oct 30 1998.
GERMANY: Energy Regulator: Problem In Winter, Looking From Today's Perspective
Wires carrying comments from the German Federal Network Agency, the national regulatory office that overseas regulation of various sectors including energy. Says that 'looking at winter, from today's perspective we would have a problem'.
- Comes as the German gov't is forced to fire up coal power plants to deal with supply issues from Gazprom via Nord Stream pipeline.
- Gov't still reluctant to consider nuclear power, with the Greens (a coalition partner) maintaining objections. German public now swinging strongly behind nuclear power as a future energy source. According to a Civey poll, 65% of respondents polled between Apr 22 and Jun 6 2022 supported using nuclear energy to meet EU climate goals. This is up from 49% between May 276 and Jun 15 2021.
Source: CIVEY/NUKLEARIA E.V, Foreign Policy, Fieldwork: May 27 and June 15, 2021 (10,052 respondents) , April 22 and June 6, 2022 (10,028 respondents)
EUR: Pushing higher
- EUR continues to march along, at new session against GBP, CHF, AUD, JPY.
- Next resistance in EURGBP is still at 0.8634 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger.
- EURJPY resistance is still much further out at 144.25.
- A break above the latter would see the pair reaching highest level since January 2015.
Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg
