Another Hike Possible, But Uncertainty Elevated On Inflation & Growth Outlooks

The BoK has left the door ajar for another rate hike, from its statement "The Board, therefore, deems it warranted to judge whether the Base Rate needs to rise further while maintaining the restrictive policy stance for a considerable time with an emphasis on ensuring price stability."

• The BoK statement notes the high degree of uncertainty surrounding both the inflation and growth outlooks for 2023.
• Inflation is expected to remain around 5% in Feb (this print is due on March 5), before gradually decreasing. The pace of slowdown is expected to be more modest compared to other economies due to rising utility costs domestically. Uncertainty on inflation rests with oil prices and FX moves, along with the economic slowdown in Korea and globally.
• Whilst global recession risks have edged down, domestic growth in South Korea is still slowing. Conditions are expected to improve in the second half led by improving China growth and a firmer tech backdrop. Again though, uncertainty is high.
• These factors, along with financial stability issues, as well as what other major central bank do, will be assessed in terms of future policy steps.
• Note the next policy meeting is on April 13.