STIR: Hawkish Move In Fed Pricing After Data

Firmer-than-expected JOLTs job data and a still elevated prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing survey applies hawkish pressure, countering the dovish input from Fed Chair Powell ahead of the data and outweighing a soft employment sub-component within the ISM survey. * Powell's focus on the Fed's mandate, as opposed to President Trump's critique, could be a supplementary factor. * 5bp of cuts priced into FOMC-dated OIS for this month, 28bp through September, 45bp through October and 64.5bp through year-end. Contracts are 1-3 less dovish vs. pre-data levels. * December pricing has retraced back within the range witnessed over the prior 3 sessions. * Implied terminal rate pricing on the SOFR futures strip sits at 3.11%, after printing at ~3.00% during the London morning (SFRZ6 hit the highest level seen since early May).

MNI US Payrolls Preview: Softer Demand Meets Supply Constraint

Rates markets look for a next Fed cut in September whilst President Trump continues to call for significant rate cuts

MNI Gilt Week Ahead - 30 June 2025

We look at market implications of the welfare reform vote, appearances from Bailey and Taylor and the week's auctions.

MNI US Macro Weekly: Not-So-Hot Summer For Economic Activity

Weaker private domestic demand was a key theme in the “hard data” this week.