All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

Fed rate cut pricing was little changed this week, as data appeared to confirm a steady economic outlook.

Jul-11 21:00

The EU, Germany, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.

Jul-11 15:34

MNI reports on a document advising Canada's finance minister on tactics for a call with Scott Bessent.

Jul-11 15:23

It’s a busier first week to the earnings season than usual this quarter, with close to 10% of the S&P 500 by market cap

Jul-11 15:02

MNI's key exclusive stories for this week

Jul-11 09:09

EM $ indices were marginally wider (+0.3bp) having set new yearly tights the week before.

Jul-11 08:06

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FI Market Analysis

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move.

July 08, 2025 06:35

Politics (both domestically and internationally) will drive UK markets this week with monthly activity data also due.

July 07, 2025 01:56

European bond futures positioning is as mixed as we have seen it in 2025, with BTPs very long and Gilts very short.

July 07, 2025 01:52

European bond futures positioning is as mixed as we have seen it in 2025, with BTPs very long and Gilts very short.

July 07, 2025 01:50

FX Market Analysis

A somewhat robust payrolls report sees near-term Fed rate cut odds slashed with the Fed still in "wait and see" mode

July 04, 2025 04:24

We think that the market is looking at the wrong measure of reserves when discussing the BOE’s September APF decision

July 04, 2025 01:59

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region

July 04, 2025 05:53

GBP STIRs have pulled away from dovish session extremes given the adjustment in Fed pricing after the U.S. data. * SONIA futures flat to +5.5, with the strip bull flattening. * SFIZ5 & Z6 pierced respective May 9 & May 8 high before a retrace. Bulls will now look to target wider May highs in those contracts. * BoE-dated OIS hasn't been able to push consistently beyond 55bp of cuts through year-end, with markets probably needing to see greater deterioration in the labour market/a swifter than expected moderation in inflation to be comfortable with discounting a meaningful deviation from the once per quarter cutting cycle that has become familiar in recent months. * Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor are due tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) Aug-25 4.005 -21.3 Sep-25 3.931 -28.6 Nov-25 3.758 -46.0 Dec-25 3.665 -55.2 Feb-26 3.531 -68.7 Mar-26 3.495 -72.2

July 01, 2025 03:05