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AUD/EUR: 20-Day EMA Caps Recovery

AUD

AUD/EUR has rallied ~2% off cycle lows seen in early March, the 20-Day EMA ($0.6299) has capped gains in recent dealing.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-year swap rates, have eased recently, from -27bps, the peak observed on the 7 March to -60bps, which has likely helped cap upside in the cross.
  • Bulls look to target a break of the 20-Day EMA ($0.6299), from there the 50% retracement of Jan-Mar bear leg at $0.6361 presents as the next target.
  • On the downside is $0.6169, the 2023 low, then $0.60 round number support are the targets for bears.

Fig1: AUD/EUR Daily Spot/EMAs


Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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