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AUD/JPY: Technicals Bearish, BOJ In View

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AUD/JPY prints at ¥90.20/30, ~0.3% softer today. The pair is down ~2% in March, as the recent dovish tilt from the RBA has weighed.

  • The technical picture is looking increasingly bearish, the 20-Day EMA has crossed over the 200-Day EMA as the pair sits above key support at ¥90.00
  • Bears look to target a break of ¥90, opening up low from 20 Dec at ¥87.03.
  • Bulls first look to target the 20-Day EMA at ¥91.44.
  • Tomorrows BOJ meeting presents the next risk event for the pair. The consensus looks for no change in BoJ policy settings in what is Governor Kuroda's final policy meeting, our preview of the event is here.
  • Only 3 of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg look for a hawkish policy move this time out. We side with the majority on this. However, the Bank’s recent propensity to shock (see the surprise widening of the YCC band back in December) means that this view is held with varying degrees of conviction.

Fig 1: AUD/JPY Daily Spot, EMAs

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AUD/JPY prints at ¥90.20/30, ~0.3% softer today. The pair is down ~2% in March, as the recent dovish tilt from the RBA has weighed.

  • The technical picture is looking increasingly bearish, the 20-Day EMA has crossed over the 200-Day EMA as the pair sits above key support at ¥90.00
  • Bears look to target a break of ¥90, opening up low from 20 Dec at ¥87.03.
  • Bulls first look to target the 20-Day EMA at ¥91.44.
  • Tomorrows BOJ meeting presents the next risk event for the pair. The consensus looks for no change in BoJ policy settings in what is Governor Kuroda's final policy meeting, our preview of the event is here.
  • Only 3 of the 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg look for a hawkish policy move this time out. We side with the majority on this. However, the Bank’s recent propensity to shock (see the surprise widening of the YCC band back in December) means that this view is held with varying degrees of conviction.

Fig 1: AUD/JPY Daily Spot, EMAs

Keep reading...Show less