USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
- RES 3: 143.02 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
- RES 1: 139.64/142.25 High Nov 24 / High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 138.21 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 28
- SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
- SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
- SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg
Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish following last week’s move lower. The reversal from 142.25, the Nov 21 high, signals the end of the corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22. Attention is on the bear trigger at 137.68, the Nov 15 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25.
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USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Zone Holds - For Now
- RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3748 High Oct 25
- PRICE: 1.3609 @ 15:38 BST Oct 28
- SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
- SUP 2: 1.3462 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
- SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20
USDCAD remains below the 20-day EMA and maintains a bearish tone as the reversal from 1.3977, Oct 13 high, extends. Support at 1.3503, the Oct 4 high, has been pierced. Note that the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.3462. Clearance of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and the pullback is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is 1.3855, Oct 21 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Watching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
- RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
- RES 2: 0.6550 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6407 @ 15:37 BST Oct 28
- SUP 1: 0.6401/6303 20-day EMA / Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
AUDUSD is trading closer to this week’s highs. The outlook is bullish following the reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. The focus is on 6547, Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6550. A break of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction remains down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6401, the 20-day EMA.
US: MIDTERMS: Republican Party Opens Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot
According to Real Clear Politics, the Republican Party now has a lead of 2.6% on the generic Congressional ballot. A lead similar to one maintained by the GOP before the Supreme Court decision in June to overturn Roe v Wade prompted a shift in the political environment in favour of Democrats.
- The generic Congressional ballot asks poll respondees to make a binary choice between Democrat and Republican candidate.
- According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrat chances of maintaining control of the House of Representatives has now dipped below 20%.
Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (RealClearPolitics)
Figure 2: Chances of Controlling the House, Over Time % (FiveThirtyEight)
