AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
- RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 2: 0.6850 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
- RES 1: 0.6812 Low Feb 17
- PRICE: 0.6727 @ 16:20 GMT Mar 2
- SUP 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 01
- SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21
AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforces bearish conditions and note too that the pair has cleared a trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6850, the former trendline support.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
- PRICE: 0.7052 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 0.6984/6967 Low Jan 31 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6845 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
AUDUSD recovered off lows Tuesday, moderating the recent pullback. The move lower is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6967.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GS Stronger Than Consensus For Payrolls, AHE and U/E
- Goldman are well above consensus for nonfarm payrolls growth, forecasting 300k vs the 190k consensus.
- They see this reflecting a variety of factors including elevated labor demand, the strong recent payroll trend, a 36k boost from the return of striking education workers, strength in Big Data employment indicators and favourable seasonal factors.
- Further, jobless claims remain extremely low, and while corporate layoff announcements have increased in recent months, only 15% of California layoff filings since December had been implemented by the January payroll period.
- They see AHE growth of 0.4% M/M (cons 0.3%), reflecting a 0.05pp boost from start-of-year wage hikes and neutral calendar effects.
- Turning to the household survey, they see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.5% (cons 3.6%) reflecting higher household employment offset by flat-to-up labor force participation rate.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Chunky two-way wing trade continued for the second consecutive session tied to consolidation, re-positioning ahead Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement.
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 5,000 SFRJ3 95.06/95.18 1x2 call spds, 0.0 ref 95.10
- -40,000 TYH3 110.5/111.5/112.5/113.5 put condors, 11.0 ref 114-19.5
- Block, 10,000 SFRG3 95.06/95.18/95.31 call flys, 7.5 ref 95.16
- Block/screen +30,000 SFRG3 95.12/95.18 put spds, 2.75 ref 95.165
- +4,000 OQG3 95.75 puts, 1.5
- +3,000 SFRJ3 94.87/95.00/95.12/95.18 broken put condors 0.5 over SFRJ3 95.31/95.43 call spds
- +1,000 SFRU 95.50/95.75 call spds, 5.25
- Screen/Block, 28,000 SFRG3 95.18 calls, 2.0 vs. 95.16/0.36%
- Update, over +25,000 SFRG3 95.12/95.18 strangles, 4.0-4.5 ref 95.16
- Block, 2,500 SFRZ3 96.00/97.00 call spds, 2.5 over 95.00 puts ref 95.545
- 2,000 OQM3 96.06/96.56 3x2 put spds ref 96.48
- Block, 3,500 SFRG3 95.06/95.12 put spds, 1.25 vs. 95.145/0.12%
- 3,500 SFRZ3 94.50 puts, 4.5 ref 95.545
- Treasury Options:
- -5,000 TYH3 114.5 straddles, 135 ref 114-16
- -28,000 TYH3 110.5/111.5/112.5/113.5 put condors, 11.0-10.0
- 1,100 FVH3 109.25 straddles, 107 ref 109-10.5
- 3,000 FVH3 110 calls, 19 ref 109-10.5
- 2,000 TYH3 118 calls, 4 ref 114-12.5
- over 18,000 TYH3 115.5 calls, 25-27 ref 114-15 to -17.5
