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Belgian And Irish HICP Add To Broader Core Disinflation Story


Belgian and Irish flash inflation estimates for November out this morning are consistent with the broad-based disinflation theme in the eurozone, with core metrics falling:

  • Belgian core CPI (ex-energy/unprocessed foods) saw another dip in November according to today's flash release, printing at 5.95% Y/Y (vs 6.55% prior). This represents the sixth consecutive month of core disinflation, from a peak of 8.7% Y/Y in May 2023.
  • The HICP estimate was -0.7% Y/Y (vs -1.7% prior), with the headline CPI reading also picking up to 0.76% Y/Y (vs a cycle low of 0.36% prior), with a sequential +0.17% M/M increase. Despite the pickup on the month, Belgian annual headline inflation figures were the lowest in the euro area in October and could maintain that distinction in November pending other results.
  • Energy base effects continued to pull down the headline, but less so than in October (contributing -4.59pp from the headline vs -5.46pp prior). Food disinflation continued steadily, while annual services inflation printed at 6.65% Y/Y (vs 7.09% prior).
  • On a monthly basis, the largest upward contributors came from alcoholic/non-alcoholic beverages and natural gas (which rose 10.8% M/M). Motor fuels were the main downside contributor, falling -4.5% M/M.
  • In Ireland, headline flash HICP was 2.3% Y/Y (vs 3.64% prior) and -1.1% M/M (vs 0.17% prior).
  • Energy base effects were the largest driver of the disinflation (energy HICP fell -5.8% M/M and -9.9% Y/Y), though the core HICP estimate (excluding energy/unprocessed foods) was 3.9% (vs 4.6% prior) suggesting more broad-based falls.

Source: StatBel, MNI

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