US TSY FUTURES: Bonds Extending Highs
Nov-01 19:06
- Tsy futures have extended session highs, as Chairman Powell discussed whether every meeting is "live".
- "We are going meeting by meeting, asking ourselves whether we achieved a stance of policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down 2% over time," Powell said. "We are looking at the full range of economic data, including financial conditions and all those things we look at. We have come very far with this rate hiking cycle, very far." Tsy futures extending highs coincided with the latter comment.
- Dec'23 10Y currently trading 106-28.5 (106-30.5 high). 10Y yield at 4.7845% -.1462. Curves remain flatter, 3M10Y -14.063 at -68.530, 2Y10Y -1.911 at -17.991 -- climbing off lows.
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EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support
Oct-02 19:00
- RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 157.40 @ 16:29 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
- SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
- SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally
EURJPY moved higher again Friday but the cross continues to trade inside a range. The cross is also trading above the 50-day EMA - at 157.22. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal. This would expose 155.54, Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Communication Services and IT Outperform
Oct-02 18:57
- Stocks back near moderate session lows after attempting to rebound in the second half, Nasdaq outperforming: 7 points (0.1%) at 13228.43, DJIA down 201.42 points (-0.6%) at 33310.09, S&P E-Mini Future down 24.75 points (-0.57%) at 4302.
- Leaders: Communication Services and Information Technology continued to outperform, media and entertainment share buoyed the former: Live Nation +2.5%, Google +1.65%, Meta +1.25%. Meanwhile, hardware and storage providers supported the IT sector, outpacing semiconductor stocks in the second half: Arista Networks +1.75%, Apple +1%, Cisco +.6%.
- Laggers: Utilities, Energy and Materials sectors underperformed, independent power and electricity providers weighing on the former: NextEra -11.5%, PG&E -5.9%, AES -7%. Oil and gas providers weighed on the Energy sector as crude fell Monday (WTI -2.24 at 88.55): Marathon Oil -4.65%, APA Corp -4.4%, Occidental Petroleum -4.4%. Meanwhile, metal and mining shares weighed on Materials with gold trading weaker (-17.77 at 1830.86): Newmont -4.4%, Freeport-McMoran -2.8%.
- Technicals: A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 4467.07, the 50-day EMA. Ahead of the 50-day average is resistance at 4399.00, the Sep 22 high, and 4425.05, the 20-day EMA.
US: Support For Trump Surges After Second GOP Debate
Oct-02 18:45
A new survey from Morning Consult has found that support for Donald Trump “surged” following the second Republican presidential debate last week.
- The survey found that support for Trump, amongst potential Republican primary voters, rose to 63% from 58% prior to the debate,
- Morning Consult notes: “The sizable shift from Monday to Thursday is notable compared with what happened after the first Republican debate in August, when our Thursday post-debate survey found no significant change in the GOP electorate’s views.”
- The strong polling data comes as a high-profile civil lawsuit brought against the Trump Organization by NY Attorney General Letitia James get underway in New York with Trump is expected to be in attendance.
- There is no possibility of a prison sentence, given that it is a civil not criminal case, but the AG is seeking USD250mn and sanctions on the Trump Organization that would severely hamper its ability to operate.
Figure 1: GOP Primary Voters 2024 Voting Intentions
Source: Morning Consult
