By-Election Likely Following Conservative MP's Conviction

A by-election in the marginal 'red wall' constituency of Wakefield is likely in the coming months following the conviction of Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexually abusing a 15-year old boy at a property in Staffordshire in 2008.

• Khan won the seat from Labour in the 2019 general election with a majority of 3,358, overturning a 2,176-vote majority for four-term Labour incumbent Mary Creagh.
• Prior to 2019, the seat had not been held by the Conservatives since 1932.
• The contest will prove a major test for PM Boris Johnson and his centre-right Conservative party. If the Conservatives can hold onto the seat amidst rising inflationary pressures, the ongoing fallout from the 'partygate' scandal, and recent revelations about the tax status of Chancellor Rishi Sunak's family, it would be a major boon to Johnson and could potentially dampen expectations of the PM leaving office in the near future.
• However, if Labour can take the seat back it would be a blow to Johnson in his efforts to retain the 'red wall' seats in northern England that delivered him victory in 2019, and could spur those within his party still unsure about his continued leadership to ramp up efforts to remove the PM.