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Accommodation trends from the big three

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Expedia +10% bucking Airbnb earnings from earlier this week and echoing local issuer, Booking.com's strength from last week. Expedia did note travel demand slowed in July and it is tempering down expectations for the rest of the year (Q3 gross bookings revenue +3-5%, FY +4%). In general forward bookings from airlines did not flash red (covers further out the July). Most of the booking co's are flagging California pricing regulation that went into effect July 1st as a headwind (display total price inclusive of all fees & a expansion around cancellation rights for consumers).

  • Booking.com (1st, August); "If you look at the overall conditions of the market, we're not really seeing a trade down on a global basis. So both in terms of the star ratings as well as in the length of stay, it's relatively stable to what we have seen in previous periods. Maybe with one exception, there is a really mild indication of some trade down in the US. But otherwise globally, we see a very steady picture."
  • Airbnb (6th August); "What we've seen more recently, and in particular in July, is a shrinking of the lead times...it's not that consumers are not necessarily going to book that trip for Thanksgiving or Christmas. It just appears that they have not booked it yet. So we're closely following all of the trends on lead times....I would say we haven't really seen a material move towards trade downs. Much to the contrary, people continue to book our larger, more expensive listings."
  • Expedia (8th August); "The travel environment was healthy in the second quarter...entering the third quarter, we have seen a more challenging macro environment and a slowdown in travel demand, consistent with recent commentary from others in the travel industry"

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