INDIA: Country Wrap: Government Contemplating Cutting Tariffs.
- India’s government is evaluating options ranging from a trade deal, cutting tariffs and importing more goods from the US if President Donald Trump follows through with threatened trade action.
- India’s crude oil imports in December rose 1.5% y/y to 20 million tons, the highest since August, according to provisional data published by the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is opening strong up +0.35%, following yesterday’s gain of +0.57%.
- INR: steady this morning at the open down -0.09% at 86.42.
- Bonds: India 10YR govt bond at 6.726%
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Historical bullets
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 2
- RES 1: 118.425/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 117.940 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 117.850 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.550 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 117.350 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. Recent weakness reinforces a bear theme. An extension would open 117.723 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key resistance to watch is 118.425, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would highlight a possible reversal and open 119.130, the Nov 7 low.
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 1: 1.0492/0629 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.0395 @ 05:14 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: 1.0343 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is trading above its recent lows. A bearish threat remains present. The move down last week paves the way for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0492, the 20-day EMA.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 134.89/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 133.96 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 133.72 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 132.95 Low Nov 18
The current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been breached, paving the way for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 134.89, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal a possible bullish reversal.
