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CPI Holds Above RBI's Target, Wholesale Prices On Tap, INR NEER Falls

INR

USD/INR is firmer in early dealing, up ~0.2%. The pair last prints at 82.30/40, the broad based USD strength we are seeing across USD/Asia is weighing on the Rupee.

  • INR was marginally weaker yesterday, USD/INR finished dealing ~0.1% firmer. The currency has received little benefit from the recent USD pull back. The INR NEER (J.P. Morgan index), slumping in recent sessions, see the chart below. This unwinds some of INR's outperformance, although the index is still comfortably above early Feb lows, see the chart below.
  • February CPI printed a touch above expectations yesterday at 6.44% (vs exp 6.40%), however CPI has moderated a touch from the 6.52% seen in January. Core Inflation printed at 6.23%, down slightly from 6.28% seen in January.
  • With CPI holding above the RBIs upper target of 6% further tightening from the central bank may be seen, despite the fallout seen in the wake of SVB.
  • Elsewhere, Indian government officials, as noted by RTRS, are discouraging the use of the Yuan for the settlement of foreign trade.
  • Wholesale Prices Y/Y for February is on the wires today. The Bloomberg median estimate sits at 4.00%, the prior read was 4.73%.

Fig 1: INR NEER Giving Back Recent Gains

Source: J.P. Morgan/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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