MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

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MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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OIL: Crude Higher; EIA Data, OPEC Report & US CPI Released Later

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Oil prices are higher ahead of US data. They have been buoyed by news that the Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russia’s oil exports before Trump takes office in January, which if enforced could reduce global supply. Brent is up 0.6% to $72.63/bbl, close to the intraday high, while WTI is also 0.6% higher around $69.00. The USD index is off its low but still down 0.1%.

  • Crude has been range trading in recent weeks due to offsetting factors, including increased tensions in the Middle East and a pessimistic supply/demand outlook for 2025. The market continues to monitor data and policy developments in China.
  • The EIA forecast a small crude deficit of around 100kbd in 2025 in its latest outlook. The shift from a surplus was driven by OPEC’s decision to delay its output normalisation to the start of April. OPEC’s monthly report is released today and the IEA’s, which tends to be less optimistic, is on Thursday.
  • Bloomberg reported that US crude oil inventories rose 0.499mn last week after falling 1.23mn the week before, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks rose 2.85mn and distillate +2.5mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
  • November US CPI data is out later, which is expected to show headline ticking up to 2.7% y/y but core steady at 3.3% y/y. The Fed is currently forecast to cut rates 25bp on December 18. US November real earnings and federal budget balance are also out and the Bank of Canada decision is announced. 
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Oil prices are higher ahead of US data. They have been buoyed by news that the Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russia’s oil exports before Trump takes office in January, which if enforced could reduce global supply. Brent is up 0.6% to $72.63/bbl, close to the intraday high, while WTI is also 0.6% higher around $69.00. The USD index is off its low but still down 0.1%.

  • Crude has been range trading in recent weeks due to offsetting factors, including increased tensions in the Middle East and a pessimistic supply/demand outlook for 2025. The market continues to monitor data and policy developments in China.
  • The EIA forecast a small crude deficit of around 100kbd in 2025 in its latest outlook. The shift from a surplus was driven by OPEC’s decision to delay its output normalisation to the start of April. OPEC’s monthly report is released today and the IEA’s, which tends to be less optimistic, is on Thursday.
  • Bloomberg reported that US crude oil inventories rose 0.499mn last week after falling 1.23mn the week before, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks rose 2.85mn and distillate +2.5mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
  • November US CPI data is out later, which is expected to show headline ticking up to 2.7% y/y but core steady at 3.3% y/y. The Fed is currently forecast to cut rates 25bp on December 18. US November real earnings and federal budget balance are also out and the Bank of Canada decision is announced.