OIL: Crude Higher; EIA Data, OPEC Report & US CPI Released Later

Gold is 0.6% lower in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.8% lower at $2684.77 on Friday. 

• Friday’s move left bullion 1.8% lower on the week.
• On Friday, Wall Street ended on a positive note, with the S&P marking its fourth consecutive gain amid optimism for a pro-growth, business-friendly agenda under Trump. The index rose 0.38% to close at 5,995, testing but not quite reaching the 6,000 level. This marked the S&P's 50th record high this year. The week's 4.66% rally was also the strongest weekly gain of the year.
• US short-term rates softened amid the rally in risk assets and reduced expectations for rate cuts. Typically, lower rates are supportive for gold, as it carries no interest yield.
• Despite this week’s dip, UBS analysts say that gold will likely see support as a hedge against the inflationary pressures of higher US government borrowing.
• From a technical perspective, the trend condition remains bullish, and the latest pullback is considered corrective, according to MNI’s technicals team. Attention is on a key support at $2,647.4, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $2,790.1, the Oct 31 high.
• Meanwhile, silver has underperformed, falling by ~2.5% on Friday and 3.8% on the week.

Almost a week has past since Trump has won the US Election, the "Trump Trades" have largely played out as expected. Focus will now largely turn to corporate earnings, with options pointing to limited upside heading into month-end.

• Bitcoin was seen as a favored asset under a Trump presidency, with significant inflows to ETF linked ETFs into leading into the election and a surge higher post Trump winning. The iShares Bitcoin Trust, has seen +$1.05b of inflows in the past week, well above the average weekly inflows of about $500m for the year and has now seen $5.52b for the past month.
• Bitcoin price is now trading above $81,000 for the first time ever having now rallied almost 17% since November 6th. The most popular strike for calls expiring on Nov 29 is $80,000 while December contracts clustered around $80,000 to $100,000 signally further upside could be ahead.
• Looking at sector tracking ETFs, Financials have seen the strongest inflows over the past week with XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) seeing $1.01b of inflows for the week and now trades up 5.76%. The ETF is currently trading at $49.19 and shows the $50 strike calls have the most open interest for the Nov 29th maturity while there is a 0.43 put/call ratio for the maturity. The energy sector was also expected to benefit from a Trump presidency, looking at the closely tracked XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) we saw a 4% jump in the ETF slightly outperforming the wider market, however options are pointing to limited upside with the $89.5 call strike having the most open interest, we last trade at $93.75 while flows have turned negative with a $140m outflow on Friday.
• Looking at major equity benchmarks, the small-cap focused Russell 2000 has gained 6.20%, verses the S&P 500 (+3.75%) and Nasdaq 100 (+4.40%). Investors are bullish on small caps, which performed well during Trump’s first term, averaging an 11% annual gain.
• Focus will turn to corporate earnings with with analysts expecting 3Q sales to increase only 0.1% y/y, this modest growth contrasts with the more robust earnings observed during Trump's first term, when the Russell 2000's quarterly sales grew at an average pace of 8.1% from late 2016 through the end of 2018. Despite this, small caps are seen as undervalued compared to large-cap stocks, creating potential for future outperformance.
• In the FX space, the top performing Asian EM currencies heading into the election were the THB (+9.20%) MYR (8.50%) IDR (+3.73%), however with Trump's focus on Tariffs and brining home manufacturing countries that rely heavily on exports to the US may see weakness in their currencies, the KRW has been the worst performing currencies post the election, trading -1.40%, while the TBH (-0.90%), both the PHP (+0.10%) and the IDR (+0.53%) are the only currencies higher. While in South America the MXN & ARS saw significant under performance since July 1, falling between 7-8% heading into the election. Post election the worst performing currency was the CLP which trades -1.80%, while the COP is the top performing, up 1.70%.

Q4 inflation expectations from the RBNZ’s business survey showed that they remain well anchored close to the mid-point of the target band. 1-year out they moderated to 2.05% from 2.4% while 2-years out they were slightly higher at 2.1% from 2.0%. 1-year out has a 90% correlation with headline inflation and 78% with core, so the RBNZ should be assured that the former will stay in the band and that the latter should return soon. Another 50bp of easing is likely at its November 27 meeting.

• RBNZ research found that household 1-year ahead inflation expectations had the best relationship with core. Our estimated correlation is higher for household than for business expectations at 85% versus 78%. Q4 household inflation expectations print on November 19.
• The business survey also includes the “perception of monetary conditions”, while they are expected to be less tight at the end of 2024 than they were at end-2023, they are still seen as tighter than end-2022. But by the end of 2025, they are perceived to be stimulatory. 

NZ CPI vs RBNZ 1-year inflation expectations y/y%