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SWEDEN: Current Account Surplus Falls To 7.6% GDP In Q3

SWEDEN

The Swedish current account surplus was SEK94.3bln in Q3, down notably from SEK165.8bln last quarter and SEK109.3bln in Q3 last year. The deterioration in the current account surplus comes after net exports subtracted 0.6pp from real GDP in Q3. Developments in net trade will continue to be watched closely into 2025, with uncertainty around the possible impact of US trade policy following the election result.

  • The goods surplus fell to SEK70.7bln (vs SEK108.4bln in Q2), consistent with monthly merchandise trade data. But this was above the SEK73.2bln surplus seen in Q3 2023.
  • The services deficit grew relative to a year ago though, falling to -SEK24.5bln vs -SEK7.9bln in Q3 2023 (and -SEK16.0bln last quarter).
  • Movements in the primary and secondary income balances versus Q3 2023 were largely offsetting, though primary income fell SEK30.3bln to SEK69.9bln relative to Q2.
  • As a % of GDP (4Q rolling sum), the current account surplus was 7.6% (vs 7.9% in Q2). This is still well above the 2015-2019 average of 2.7%, but below the pre-2010 high of 8.3% (Q2 2007).

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