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Data Plays Second Fiddle to Ebb and Flow of Risk Sentiment

FOREX
  • Data releases and speakers have played second fiddle the ebb and flow of risk sentiment early Friday, with a sour open for European equities helping dictate proceedings. A gap lower at the cash equity open was triggered by weakness across the European banking sector, with the likes of Credit Suisse and UBS hit particularly hard after a report that the US Dept of Justice could be investigating the banks for evidence that they aided Russian oligarchs in skirting Western sanctions.
  • As a result, concerns about the stability of one of Europe's largest banking sectors have worsened, leading to underperformance across risk proxies and high Beta FX.
  • Souring risk sentiment has led to outperformance of the USD and JPY, helping put the USD index higher for a second session and within range of the 50-dma pivot of 103.4421.
  • PMI data from across the Eurozone saw mixed results, with composite indices beating expectations thanks to a healthier services sector, although manufacturing continues to weigh on overall sentiment.
  • Focus for Friday trade turns to prelim February durable goods data and the prelim March PMIs for the US. Markets also see the first post-FOMC decision Fed speakers, with Bullard due to speak from St. Louis. ECB's Centeno, Nagel and BoE's Mann also make appearances.
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